After a tough home loss in overtime last week that put the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (10-1, 7-1) national championships to long shot status, the team heads just a few miles North this week to take on the No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (8-2, 6-2) in the 116th edition of the Civil War.
Oregon State enters the contest off of a decisive 62-14 victory over the California Golden Bears. The victory signaled the end of the Jeff Tedford era while giving Oregon State their second largest conference point total. The Beavers have one of the better defenses in the Pac-12 Conference. Astoria native Jordan Power is having a spectacular season at cornerback while Scott Crichton is playing very well at defensive end.
Oregon comes into the game having lost for the first time since last November. Their 13 game winning streak was the longest in the nation. The Ducks have struggled of late to contain two straight ahead powerful running attacks.
Today we continue our series looking at the match-ups on each side of the ball with our focus on the defense of both teams.
Oregon State enters the contest off of a decisive 62-14 victory over the California Golden Bears. The victory signaled the end of the Jeff Tedford era while giving Oregon State their second largest conference point total. The Beavers have one of the better defenses in the Pac-12 Conference. Astori native Jordan Power is having a spectacular season at cornerback while Scott Crichton is playing very well at defensive end.
Oregon comes into the game having lost for the first time since last November. Their 13 game winning streak was the longest in the nation. The Ducks have struggled of late to contain two straight ahead powerful running attacks.
Today we continue our series looking at the match-ups on each side of the ball with our focus on the defense of both teams.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
Oregon State: The Beavers run a traditional 4-3 defense. The difference for the Beavers defense this season has come from the defensive tackle position. Castro Masaniai (6-3, 354) is a massive presence in the middle. Masaniai missed the final seven games of 2011 with a broken leg, but has impacted the Beaver defense this season with 20 total tackles, 4 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Playing behind the massive senior will be Joe Lopez (6-0, 273) a sophomore walk-on from Portland. Lopez has played sparingly this season and has recorded just 4 total tackles on the season.
Starting at the other defensive tackle position is Andrew Seumalo (6-4, 290) another senior in the middle. Seumalo, the son of the Beavers defensive line coach, has shown great improvement this season with 28 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. Behind Seumalo will be junior Mana Rosa (6-3, 276) another very inexperienced back-up. On the season, Rosa has just 3 total tackles.
Oregon: with Wade Keliikipi (6-3, 295) likely out for the rest of the regular season the Ducks took a hit to their defensive line depth. Keliikipi who had started 20 consecutive games had 20 tackles with 4 tackles for loss and 2 sacks before his injury. Getting the nod in his place will be Ricky Heimuli (6-4, 305) who showed some promise last season. Heimuli played well in the loss to Stanford last week, his first start of the season. Heimuli now has 14 total tackles with one sack. Behind Heimuli this week will be Alex Balducci (6-4, 290) a true freshman who was pulled out of a redshirt season two weeks ago against Cal.
The return of Isaac Remington (6-4, 301), to the starting lineup was good news for the Duck defensive line last week. Remington has notched 16 total tackles and 4 tackles for loss and one sack. Behind Remington will be Arik Armstead (6-8, 280) a true freshman. Armstead played perhaps his finest game against Cal two weeks ago. Though he only recorded two tackles, he was in the backfield multiple times putting pressure on the quarterback. For the season Armstead has 24 total tackles, one tackle for loss and 0.5 sacks through eleven games.
EDGE: Even
The Duck defensive line has taken a hit to their depth with the loss of Keliikipi, but still have been able to manage very good numbers. The starters for Oregon State are big and physical and have done an outstanding job dominating the line of scrimmage this season, but their depth is almost non-existent. What depth does exist does not provide the same level of physicality or ability to control the line of scrimmage.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
Oregon State: Starting on one side will be Scott Crichton (6-3, 263) the sensational sophomore from Tacoma. Crichton has been a terror this season notching 37 total tackles with team leading numbers in both tackles for loss (15) and sacks (9) this season. Playing behind Crichton will be John Braun (6-5, 283) a junior from West Albany High School. Braun has played both inside and outside during his career and has 5 total tackles this season.
Across from Crichton is Dylan Wynn (6-2, 265) another sophomore. Wynn had a superb freshman season. He has not been quite as active in the opponents backfield this season, but has managed to play well with 45 total tackles, 2 tackles for loss and one sack. Playing behind Wynn is Rudolf Fifita (6-., 263) a senior former JC transfer. Fifita has been the best reserve defensive lineman with 18 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks this season.
Oregon: Oregon has a first team All Pac-12 defensive end hybrid in Dion Jordan (6-7, 243) who terrorized Pac-12 quarterbacks and coaches last season. Jordan looked strong last week after returning from a shoulder injury. On the season Jordan now has 42 total tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 5 sacks. Back-up Tony Washington (6-3, 244) a sophomore who has played both defensive tackle and defensive end as needed, has started in Jordan's place and is a very capable backup who has notched 18 total tackles and one tackle for loss this season.
Across from Jordan the Ducks should see Taylor Hart (6-6, 292) the junior from Tualatin. Hart has been a monster on the defensive line this season recording 29 total tackles with 8 tackles for loss and a team leading 7 sacks. Playing behind Hart will be true freshman Deforrest Buckner (6-7, 265) from Hawaii. Buckner has seen his role increased as his play has been very good early in his career. With the increased playing time during the second half of the season, Buckner has raised his season total to 25 tackles with 2.5 tackles for loss and one sack.
EDGE: Even
Oregon has used their depth much more so than the Beavers. The depth players have played well and have more tackles than the Beaver back-ups; yet the Beaver backups have been more active in the backfield with more tackles for loss and sacks during their time in the game. Despite Crichton's incredible season, the Duck Starters are about equal in production with more total sacks and more total tackles for loss, though the Beaver defensive ends have more total tackles. This match-up is about as even as it gets.
LINEBACKER
Oregon State: The Beavers use a mixture of youth and veteran leadership in the linebacker group. D. J. Alexander (6-2, 225) gets the start at the "sam" linebacker spot. The sophomore has played well this season with 37 total tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
Starting at the "will" linebacker position is Michael Doctor (6-0, 223) the junior from Oklahoma. Doctor leads the team with 61 total tackles and has also recorded 7.5 tackles for loss and intercepted one pass this season.
Playing inside at the middle linebacker spot is Feti Taumoepeau (6-1, 248) the senior. Taumoepeau has 44 tackles this season with 2 tackles for loss.
Normally, the reserve at each position is listed following the starter. And this is where Oregon State shows a true lack of depth as the backup for all three linebacker spots is Reuben Robinson (6-3, 235) a senior from Chandler, Arizona. Robinson has played well with 23 total tackles, 2 tackles for loss and one sack this season. No other linebacker has played meaningful minutes on defense for the Beavers this season.
Oregon: Michael Clay (5-11, 225), the rock solid starter at the "Will" linebacker position, missed the second half of the Washington State game due to an undisclosed injury. Clay played the best game of his career against Stanford despite the loss. Against the Cardinal, Clay racked up an incredible 20 total tackles improving his team leading total to 82 total tackles along with 8 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Behind Clay is Derrick Malone (6-2, 219) who has started twice this season and responded well with 6 total tackles in his first start against Washington. For the season, Malone now has 41 total tackles and one tackle for loss and one interception.
Alongside Clay will be Boseko Lokombo (6-3, 233). After several solid performances, Lokombo now has 30 tackles with 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks and two interceptions. Despite playing as the backup to Lokombo, Tyson Coleman (6-1, 222) has notched 32 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks this season.
Returning from an apparent wrist injury against the Trojans, "Mike" linebacker Kiko Alonso (6-4, 242) is the teams second leading tackler. Alonso has been a monster in the middle so far this season and has 68 tackles with a team leading 11 tackles for loss and one sack in nine appearances. Showing off his athleticism against the Troajans with another great interception, Alonso now has 3 interceptions this season. The reserve middle linebacker will be Rahim Cassell. Cassell (6-0, 215) who has appeared in all ten games for the Ducks this season and has 17 total tackles.
EDGE: Oregon
After watching the play of the linebackers of Stanford, this week shows something much different. The first glaring problem for the Beavers is a severe lack of depth. With just three starters and one reserve that have seen significant time for Oregon State, they will need to be iron men against the up tempo Duck offense. Even looking at just the starters, Oregon has 180 tackles, 22 tackles for loss and 5 sacks between the three starters compared to 142, 15 and 1.5 for the Beavers. With a production edge by the starting unit and a considerably deeper bench, the Ducks have a strong edge at this position.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
Oregon State: The strength of this Beaver defense lay in the defensive backfield. Jordan Poyer (6-0, 190) the senior from Astoria is a legitimate All-America candidate with his play this season. Capping a very good career for the originally unheralded prospect, Poyer has notched 37 tackles with 4 tackles for loss, one sack, 11 passes defended and a conference leading 6 interceptions this season.
Across from Poyer will be Rashad Reynolds (5-11, 186) a junior who is also having a very strong season. Reynolds is tied for the team lead with 61 total tackles along with one tackle for loss, 3 interceptions and a team leading 16 passes defended. That number is also good for second best on the conference.
Once again, the depth at the cornerback position is razor thin with junior Sean Martin (6-0, 186) the only reserve to see any significant minutes on defense. Martin has played well off the bench recording 31 total tackles along with 5 passes defended and 2 interceptions.
At the Strong Safety position, Tyrequek Zimmerman (6-0, 206) gets the start. The sophomore from South Carolina has played well in run support with 45 total tackles. Zimmerman has no tackles for loss this season along with 2 passes defended. Playing behind him will be Anthony Watkins (6-1, 217) a senior who has 31 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack, one interception and 2 passes defended.
Starting at free safety is Ryan Murphy (6-3, 213) another sophomore. Murphy has also been strong in run support with 57 total tackles to go with 2.5 tackles for loss. He has 4 passes defended and 2 interceptions this season. His primary back-up will be Steven Christian (6-0, 180) a senior who has just 4 appearances this season with 4 total tackles.
Oregon: Terrance Mitchell (6-0, 189) will get the start at one cornerback spot. Even though he has not had a lot of opportunities this season, Mitchell has played well recording 32 tackles and 8 passes defended. Behind Mitchell is sophomore Dior Mathis (5-9, 182) one of the fastest players on the team. Mathis has 14 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 4 passes defended and 2 interceptions in a reserve role through eight appearances.
At the other corner will be Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (5-10, 190) who appeared in all 14 games and started 2 as a true freshman in 2011. Ekpre-Olomu has established himself as one of the premier defensive backs in the Pac-12 Conference if not one of the best in the nation. Though he had the toughest assignment in the nation covering Marquise Lee against USC, Ekpre-Olomu has still had a stellar season thus far having recorded 53 total tackles, 3 interceptions, 18 passes defended and an incredible 6 forced fumbles. His 18 passes defended rank first in the Pac-12 conference. Behind Ekpre-Olomu will be Troy Hill (5-11, 180) a sophomore who played extensively last season including 6 starts as a freshman. Hill also recorded a "pick six" earlier this season returning an interception 29 yards for a touchdown. Through seven appearances this season, Hill has notched 21 tackles with one tackle for loss, 2 passes defended and the interception.
At safety, Oregon suffered the loss of their second starter at safety when Avery Patterson (5-10, 185) went down with a torn ACL against Cal. Prior to his injury Patterson had recorded 44 total tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss with 6 passes defended and 3 interceptions. Replacing him as a starter will be Erik Dargan (5-11, 205) a sophomore who has played well in a reserve role and now has 43 total tackles with 3 tackles for loss, 4 passes defended and 2 interceptions. Behind Dargan is Ben Butterfield (6-0, 197) a junior special teams standout from Sherwood, Oregon. Butterfield has recorded 9 total tackles this season, mostly on special teams.
Next to Dargan will be Brian Jackson (5-10, 205), a junior who was a special teams standout last season. Jackson has played well in 2012 having recorded 56 total tackles, one sack, 7 passes defended, one sack and one interception. Behind Jackson will be James Scales (5-10, 190) a sophomore from North Carolina. Scales has appeared mostly in mop-up duty prior to last week and has recorded 5 total tackles with 1 pass defended.
EDGE: Oregon State
For the first time in quite some time, the edge in this match-up goes to the opponent. Oregon has two very good cornerbacks with Ekpre-Olomu and Mitchell that are every bit the equal of Poyer and Reynolds. The two tandems are practically dead even in their performances this season. Well, with one exception, the Beaver cornerbacks have been extremely productive with 9 interceptions between the two starters.
If Oregon had its full complement of starters from the beginning of the season, they would likely get the edge, but the loss of both Boyett and Patterson really hurt the strength of the safety position. The depth advantage has been taken away with injuries late in the season and the Beaver defensive backs have been outstanding this season.
OVERALL DEFENSE
Oregon State: For the second week in a row, the Ducks face one of the more difficult rush defenses in the nation. The Beavers have allowed just 18.6 points per game and 108.7 yards rushing per game. Despite giving up 236.8 yards per game through the air, the Beavers rank third in the conference in pass efficiency defense as they hold teams to just 58.2 percent completion percentage, good for third in the conference and 6.2 yards per attempt which is good for 4th in the conference.
On the ground, the Beavers give up 3.5 yards per carry which is also second best in the Pac-12 Conference.
The Beavers are very good in third down conversions holding their opponents to just 29 percent conversion rate. In fourth down situations, though, the Beavers allow 60 percent of attempts to be converted, last in the conference.
In the red-zone, Oregon State is 9th in the conference allowing 83.9 percent of opponents opportunities to be converted into points. They are a little better, though, in red-zone touchdown percentage allowing 61.3 percent of red-zone chances to be converted to touchdowns which is smack in the middle of the conference as the 6th best mark.
Oregon: Oregon, meanwhile, had been playing exceptional defense most of the season prior to the USC game. You may not be able to tell by looking at final scores, but it has to be understood that a lot of the yards and points that finish the totals occur against players far down the depth chart.
Despite using a makeshift defensive line against Cal, the Ducks held the Bears to just 120 yards in the second half and only 46 total yards after the first possession. With all of the talk about how much the Ducks yield on defense, it might be surprising to find out that Oregon gives up the third fewest points in the conference allowing just 21.8 points per game. Though they are allowing 380.7 total yards per game, many of those yards happen in the fourth quarter as teams sling the ball all over the field trying to overcome big deficits on the scoreboard. The run defense for the Ducks has struggled some as the defense is now giving up 151.8 yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry.
The Ducks lead the conference with 20 interceptions and 32 total takeaways this season.
The Ducks are also third best in the conference allowing just 30.8 percent of third down conversions and just 36.0 percent to be converted, also good for third in the Pac-12 Conference. The Ducks lead the Pac-12 in red zone defense allowing just 65. percent for scores and 46.5 percent touchdown rate in the red-zone.
The Ducks dropped from second to fourth in the conference in pass efficiency defense after last weekends game
Edge: Oregon State
The Beavers defense has been very solid all season long. Despite being woefully short on depth, their front line players do a very good job controlling the pace of a game and controlling the line of scrimmage. When healthy, Oregon's defense would likely get the edge here, but the Ducks are not healthy. Though the defense should be closer to healthy this weekend, they are still working through some defensive line depth issues as well as being very short handed in the defensive backfield.
The linebacker corps for Oregon is noticeably deeper and has been very productive. If the Duck linebackers can match last weeks performance, then they could end up being the better defense on the field Saturday.
Overall, this is closer than the numbers appear, but the edge has to go to the team that has put up better numbers all season and not allowed more than 35 points in any game this season.
SCORE PREDICTION:
Despite the fact that Oregon State is a pass dominated team, they will look to run the ball early to set up the pass plays. Buoyed by the success of the last two teams running against the Duck defense, expect the Beavers to come out looking to control the clock and march methodically down the field. The Beavers are second in the conference averaging 32:09 possession time this season and will look to hold the ball even longer to keep the Ducks explosive offense off the field.
After showing the Ducks that they want to run the ball, the Beavers will turn to play action passing looking to take advantage of a depleted safety position for the Ducks with their standout duo of Wheaton and Cooks over the top. If the Beavers are able to make a couple of big early runs allowing them to go to their receivers with play action passing, it could be a long day for the Duck defense.
Despite the running success of both Cal and Stanford in consecutive weeks, the Beavers rushing attack is not on the same level. Cal and Stanford average 4.9 and 4.4 yards per carry respectively while Oregon State is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Expect Nick Aliotti and his assistant coaches to use plenty of packages to contain the running game early looking to force the Beavers into known passing situations. The defense, though it has been banged up of late, should be able to respond and contain the Beaver running game.
On offense, the Ducks will look to exploit the lack of depth on the defensive line and in the linebacker spot; but they will go back to some inside running this week. Expect Chip Kelly to use a lot of inside then outside plays to get massive Masaniai moving around and tired. The depth at this position is thin and getting Masaniai tired will allow the Duck offense to start moving the ball consistently.
The cornerbacks are very good for the Beavers and have been able to play on an island without a lot of safety help as the safeties for the Beavers tend to spend a lot of time in run support. For the second week in a row, this, combined with the linebackers keying on the running game should leave the middle of the field open for Lyerla, Huff and Hawkins to make some plays. The Beavers like to bring pressure from the defensive ends as well, which will likely leave screen passes and swing passes to the running backs open.
In the end, though the Beaver defense is immensely improved this season, the lack of a consistent running game and Mannions lack of mobility in the pocket will lead to some breakdowns for the Beavers offense. The defense, while it is good is nowhere near the caliber of Stanford. Expect this to be a tight game most of the way with the Ducks able to put some good drives together. It will likely be lower scoring than Duck fans would like to see, but the result should be a victory.
Final: 34-24 Oregon
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