-Lunardi and the ESPN Bracketology crew moved the Ducks down to the "Next Four Out" list, meaning the Ducks are about 5th in line to get into the tourney.
-As of today, the Ducks are 2nd in the Pac-12 in RPI ratings: Cal (35), Oregon (52), Washington (53), Arizona (71), Colorado (77)
-As of today in Bracketology, Lunardi has Cal in as a 9 seed, Washington in as a 10 seed (and rising), and Arizona in as an 11 seed (and rising)
-Colorado is listed directly under Oregon on the "Next Four Out" list as well
Based on these updates, here is my opinion:
-Ducks MUST win out this week over Colorado & Utah. If they do so, they will at least get a 1-4 seed in the Pac-12 Tourney, giving them a first day bye in Los Angeles
-They then MUST win their first game, as it will be against a 5-12 ranked team in the conference, and therefore, a team not vying for a spot in the NCAA tourney-- These are those dangerous spoiler games that we see underdogs winning every year (including the Ducks against UCLA last year).
-I believe they MUST win in the semi-finals, as this will most likely be against one of the Pac-12 teams already considered to be in the tourney (AZ, WASH, CAL). If it isn't against one of these teams, a win is even more crucial as a conference tournament loss to a non-NCAA tourney team with a low RPI will almost assure the Ducks a bid...to the NIT.
-A Pac-12 Championship Game appearance and good showing (win or close loss) I think will be enough to put them in the NCAA Tournament, most likely as a 10-12 seed.
What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Is winning the Pac-12 tourney a must? Do we need to only win one game in LA? Is the Pac-12 getting jipped? Does the Pac-12 only deserve 2 bids?