November 22, 2006

The Recruiting Corner: Thanksgiving

The Oregon Ducks have what is so far one of their best recruiting classes ever. The Ducks have commitments from 14 high school athletes. As a group those recruits average 3.21 stars according the analysts of the Rivals network. That's good enough to rate as the 20th best average for recruiting classes in the country and third best in the PAC 10. The Ducks defeat on the field by Arizona led many Duck fans to question whether recruiting efforts would maintain their momentum or whether the Ducks would even be able to hold on to the commitments they'd already received.

Word out of the Casanova Center is that not only do its denizens expect to be able to keep what they've got, they expect to improve upon what is already an excellent average rating for their recruits with those they will bring in to fill out the rest of what is likely to be a very large class. The Oregon coaching staff is notoriously optimistic about their chances with any given recruit. Is that kind of optimism about the recruiting class of 2007 warranted?

The simple answer is yes. An answer that a mathematician might prefer is "probably." When you take a look at the players whom the Ducks are recruiting and with whom they are doing well, you see that there about 20 recruits who are rated four stars or more by the Rivals network who are still very interested in joining the Duck program and have the Ducks in their final five or better. If the Ducks were the equal of each of the other finalists in each recruits mind and each had five finalists, statistics would say that the Ducks would be likely to get commitments from about four the 20 or so players who have Oregon among their leaders. That equals the number of four star recruits from whom the Ducks already have commitments. With the maximum of 25 scholarships available, that would mean the Ducks would be likely to bring in 11 more recruits. If the Ducks do no better than the statistical average with their targets they would slightly improve their average rating per recruit as far as the 11 additional recruits for this class go.

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