The global pandemic has affected every aspect of life with sports hit as hard as anything. The Pac-12 announced that this season there will not be any fans in the stands for its games, one of the many ramifications for the league in this seven-game schedule.
The Oregon Ducks have traditionally held a major advantage at Autzen Stadium, with a knowledgeable and notably loud fan-base. In Mario Cristobal’s first two seasons the Ducks have lost only one home game.
But without fans, will they be as effective at home? In this edition of DSA Roundtable, Dale Newton, Scott Reed and Brandon Gibson answer the question: How many points is home field advantage worth at Autzen this season?
Newton
Conventional wisdom assigns three points for home field advantage, but there have been historic games where Autzen Magic proved to be worth much more. The upset over Michigan in 2003. Fright Night 2009, when Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James ran Pete Carroll and USC ragged.
When the Ducks upended Washington in an overtime thriller in 2018, the energy of the home crowd inspired two key fourth down stops and a missed Husky field goal in the fourth quarter, wide right from 34 yards.
This season there will be no uplifting wall of noise. Both teams will come out of the tunnel into an empty stadium, peopled by only cardboard cutouts. The team will have to provide its own energy and lift themselves up when they come out flat.
The chief benefits of playing at home in a pandemic year are the familiar routine, knowing the shadows and surroundings. The other significant advantage is that its easier to keep coaches and players out of the protocol when you don't have to travel.
Reed
How many points is home field advantage worth at Autzen Stadium this year?
There are generally two components that create a home field advantage; noise and field/weather conditions. At Autzen, noise has historically been the primary home field advantage for the Ducks. Sure, there were times when the crown of the field made a major difference, but those times are gone. Whether the weather itself bcomes an advantage will be largely dependent on the opponent’s offensive scheme.
At this point, with no real noise to speak of in the stadium and only one air raid offense coming to Eugene, the advantage of Autzen is muted at best and non-existent at worst. If put to the test and forced to give a number, I will go to 1.5 points in the rain and 0 points without. Fans really do matter to the Autzen mystique.
Gibson
With little surprise, the home field advantage across college football hasn’t been the same as recent years. The playing field has been leveled, as evidenced by the lower winning percentage by favorited teams at home. As of a couple weeks ago, home favorites winning percentage was more than eight points down from the average winning percentage from 2008 to 2019 (from 78.3% to 70.1%, respectively). This is even with Las Vegas likely accounting for an expected drop in value of home field advantage when setting spreads.
Autzen has been often considered one of the greater home field advantages in college football, and the Oregon coaches have often credited the fans for their enthusiasm and helping energize the team. Could this hurt the Ducks in 2020? Possibly, but I wouldn’t expect a bigger effect than any other program might experience at home. Working in the Ducks corner is a new video and sound system and something of greater importance, culture. On Saturday, the Ducks are a 10-point favorite, but if the fans were there, I’d expect that spread to be around 13.
