Published Nov 18, 2023
DSA Roundtable: Staff perspective and predictions for Oregon-ASU
Staff
Duck Sports Authority

Oregon is facing off against a familiar face across the field Saturday with former offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham leading Arizona State, but for the Ducks, this is ultimately just another step toward their grand goals as they control their path to the Pac-12 championship game (and potentially the College Football Playoff).

Arizona State (3-7, 2-5 Pac-12) has won two of its last three games, but the Sun Devils are in a rebuilding year in Dillingham's first season, while the No. 6-ranked Ducks (9-1, 6-1) are simply looking to continue taking care of business.

Before the teams kickoff at 1 p.m. in Tucson (on FOX), our Duck Sports Authority team covers the key storylines and makes predictions.

What is the biggest concern for Oregon heading into this game?

Scott Reed: "For me this is the classic trap game. While USC is not as good as expected, players from the area care about winning against USC and the Trojans gave Oregon more life than expected. Add in a late season road trip, with nicks and dings piling up, and a team that has struggled to control penalties this season against a team that has risen to the occasion more often than not this season and that makes the matchup intriguing. Now add in the rivalry game next week with a potential trip to the Pac-12 championship to avenge their only loss this season and that is the definition of a trap game. Oregon has been solid on the road since a sluggish start early in the season, but trips to the state of Arizona in November have historically not been kind to Oregon. The Sun Devils have proven to be a challenge to several teams this season and this will be a test not of Oregon’s talent or depth, but of their discipline and focus."

Brandon Gibson: "A road game in Arizona for the Ducks. I’ll skip over the nightmare memories of Duck QBs lost in the desert, as both of those big ones (Dixon and Clemens) occurred in Tucson, but Tempe has also not been kind to the Ducks. Oregon has lost their last two trips to Sun Devil Stadium, favored by 14 and 14.5 points, and required a few miracles in 2015 to not make it three in a row. Just to walk back down memory lane, 2015 included a fourth down catch by Dwayne Stanford from the magic man Vernon Adams to send the game to overtime. From there, ASU could have been easily overcome a finished Duck defense with a few rushing attempts in the third overtime, but the Sun Devils went straight boneheaded, throwing the ball straight at Aaron Springs on back-to-back plays, with Springs holding on to the second one to secure the victory. I’m not kidding when I say that the Sun Devils could have put me in at running back in that third overtime and Oregon would be staring at three straight losses in Tempe.

"Any good coach will tell their team that history does not dictate the outcome to the game, and as we saw in the postgame USC cinematic, Lanning has the team focused on the hardest part of the climb, the end. This definitely looks like a trap game, but this is a different Oregon team, and a huge gap in overall team quality. The spread on this game is 24.5 in favor of the Ducks at this time, and despite the concerns of the past, this one should erase the bad memories of the last decade in Tempe."

What is the most intriguing offensive storyline Saturday?

Brandon: "Oregon is facing an improving Arizona State defense that can cause troubles for one-dimensional teams. Washington, coming off the Oregon game, only attempted 10 rushing attempts for 10 yards against the Sun Devils and probably deserved to lose in the desert. To be fair, the Oregon defense took a big toll on the Husky offensive line, and Arizona State came in full force to catch a Washington team on a bad day. Oregon comes in this game with an offensive line that has started 10 games together, and a depth that seems unmatched (on both sides of the ball). The running game will be an important aspect to get rolling early to keep the “belief” of competing out of the stadium. Oregon’s offense should by all means find success through the air and on the ground, but cannot allow themselves to deviate from their game plan."

Scott: "What will the running back rotation look like? I know Bucky Irving practiced this week and can play if he is needed, but he is banged up and could sure use a week of rest. Unfortunately, the Ducks have already lost one running back to injury and if Irving does not go, then the Ducks are down to Jordan James and a pair of true freshmen. Though Jayden Limar and Dante Dowdell are extremely talented and will be elite running backs down the road, a season that started off with impressive depth at running back has slowly devolved into a team that needs a boost from the reserves to keep Irving as fresh as possible heading into the final regular season game. It could be a reason that Oregon leans into the passing game a little bit more than they have recently. Yes, they threw for a lot of yards a week ago, but the rushing attempts and passing attempts were nearly the same. The short, quick pass can be as good as a run without Irving getting hit as frequently."

What's the most compelling defensive storyline?

Scott: "Can Oregon impose its will on Arizona State? The Sun Devils have used a variety of formations, plays and personnel to keep teams guessing – mostly to minimize the reality that they just do not have the depth and talent of their opponents and need to do things different to stay close – and they have done so on both sides of the ball. This is one of those games where Dan Lanning and the defense should do exactly what they do – and not try to change their base defense to suit a different scheme. The entire structure of this game should be set to force the QB to beat the Oregon defense with his arm. Shut down the running game and Cam Skattebo. If the Oregon defense forces Trenton Bourguet to try and make plays down the field, I would expect the Ducks – even if they are without Khyree Jackson and/or Jahlil Florence -- to have plenty of success and shut down the ASU offense."

Brandon: "Arizona State’s offense has broken the 30-point mark once this season in 10 games. The offense lead by new ASU coach and former Duck OC Kenny Dillingham has been trying to make the best of a thin roster with talented but young players. Unfortunately for the Devils, their freshman quarterback Jayden Rashada hasn’t had the time back from injury to compete in this game. Dillingham will likely try and pull out all the stops and has a familiarity with the Oregon defense (although in its infancy last season). For Oregon, I think that they really just need to keep everything in front of them, and make the quarterback “win” the game for the Devils. Oregon has a couple nagging injuries for their starting corners, but both are expected to play. Best-case scenario is Oregon getting well ahead and giving Bridges and Manning more time to polish their game in this one. ASU doesn’t have a lot of power up front, so the Duck front seven would have a productive day stopping the run and pressuring the Arizona State quarterback."

What is your prediction?

Brandon: "As I mentioned above, Arizona State has one game where it has scored over 30, but Oregon only has three games in which it only scored in the 30s. The Ducks with the No. 1 scoring offense in the nation (46.3 PPG) face off against the Devils with the 125th scoring offense (17.7 PPG). To make matters worse, Oregon also boasts the 13th best scoring defense (17.1 PPG) while ASU sits at 76th (27.4 PPG). Vegas put this game at a 24.5 line, but unless Oregon just doesn’t show up to play, I don’t see it being that close. Say goodbye to the nightmares of the past as Dan Lanning has his troops ready to go and won’t overlook what has historically been a scary road trip for the Ducks. Final Score: Oregon 45 - Arizona State 10."

Scott: "At the end of the day, the Oregon offense is loaded and – despite the Arizona State defense playing better than expected – the Ducks are capable of moving the ball and scoring on just about anyone in the nation. If the Ducks play cleanly (few penalties), I expect them to move the ball up and down the field very well. No defense has been able to really stop the Oregon offense and I don’t expect that to happen this week. Defensively, the Ducks are a lot better than a year ago and facing a Sun Devil offense that is really struggling to move the ball and score points. With the combination of pressure packages and excellent man coverage skills, I expect the Oregon defense to keep the Sun Devils right around their season average. I am going to go with Oregon winning 38-17."