Rivals national recruiting analyst Marshall Levenson is joined by national recruiting director Adam Gorney, Jack Knowlton of TideIllustrated.com and Pat Burnham of TheOsceola.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Four-star Cal QB commit Jaron Sagapolutele will eventually flip to Oregon.
Gorney: FACT. If Jaron Sagapolutele ends up scheduling a visit to Oregon then yes, I do believe he will flip to the Ducks. It was his dream school growing up, he closely watched Marcus Mariota succeed there, he's a lefty Hawaiian quarterback like Dillon Gabriel who is having a great season there now and the Ducks are in the national championship hunt. I have some reservations about making that prediction, though, because Cal targeted Sagapolutele early on and the four-star quarterback totally respects that a ton so it could be tough to de-commit. But if Sagapolutele locks in a visit to Eugene then I would predict a flip happening.
Levenson: FACT. Despite the Golden Bears being in the picture earlier than some of the more recent offers, they absolutely have a leg to stand on with loyalty. But for a quarterback of the prototype that Sagapolutele fits, Oregon is a massive threat now they have an offer on the table. As Gorney points, he is a lefty Hawaiian who grew up cheering for the Ducks. Oregon also happens to be a program that often gets what it wants.
It may not be in the immediate future, but with two months left until signing day, I see the Ducks swaying him away.
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2. Daylan McCutcheon will remain committed to Florida State.
Burnham: FACT. Yes, for now. Daylan McCutcheon has taken visits to Texas and Texas A&M according to reports and a trip to USC for an unofficial visit is still a possibility as well. However, McCutcheon's plan was to get back on Florida State's campus for a visit during the season. He is still committed to the Seminoles and his value may be growing with FSU after the decommitment of receiver Malik Clark. Certainly, there is some reason for concern, but I am not going to put too much stock into it until he has a return visit to Texas or A&M or doesn't make it to Tallahassee as previously scheduled. But no doubt, things are fluid with FSU's 2025 recruiting class right now.
Levenson: FICTION. It was a close race for McCutcheon when he made his commitment in the summer. He selected Florida State as his choice of destination, but USC was nearly the pick. In fact, even McCutcheon thought it would be the Trojans in crunch time as he put the final touches on his commitment. With Florida State struggling greatly, and McCutcheon already visiting others schools, it will be very tough for the Seminoles to hang on.
There have already been some departures in the class, and it would certainly not be surprising to see any more. Texas is a major threat moving closer to signing day and visiting USC next weekend will surely be of intrigue.
3. Five-star QB Keelon Russell will have an opportunity to take meaningful snaps as a true freshman.
Knowlton: FICTION. Alabama has one of the deepest quarterback rooms in the country this season with resdshirt sophomore Ty Simpson and redshirt freshman Austin Mack and Dylan Lonergan currently behind starter Jalen Milroe. In the ever-changing landscape of college football and with the ease of player movement, any of those players could opt to take their talents elsewhere. However I expect them to all fight for the starting job next year and all three are relatively young. Despite his unquestionably elite talent, Keelon Russell would still be entering a deep unit and likely have to gain a season of experience before seeing much game action. Alabama fans will certainly enjoy when Russell does make his debut, but the Tide’s current quarterback depth crates a strong pecking order in front of him.
Levenson: FICTION. There has just been one quarterback in the 2024 Rivals250 to start a game this year: Nebraska's Dylan Raiola. Some others have gotten in for mop-up duty, but even then, it is small number. Russell will finish as a top-10 prospect in the 2025 cycle, but as Knowlton lays out, he is entering arguably the deepest quarterback room in the country. As is now the norm, it would be surprising if at least one of them does not look to transfer, but that still leaves two or three legitimate options for Kalen DeBoer and the Tide ahead of Russell to start.
Russell has been hand-picked by DeBoer and his staff, so it will be interesting to see if they favor him over some of the other guys in the room they inherited. But as of right now, I would say the likelihood is Russell gets a redshirt year and is a prime candidate for starting in his second and third years before potentially heading off to the NFL, barring any injuries.
