There have been plenty of articles detailing the problems created by Moneyball—and by those who use it as a verb, as in “I’m Moneyballing my accounting department.” But one of the central issues is so heavily glossed over that it’s worth revisiting.
First, let’s take a step back. Most people who claim to be applying Moneyball principles to their business aren’t really doing so. More often than not, it’s just a fancy new label for cost-cutting and efficiency—without the underlying insight. True Moneyball isn't just about saving money; it’s about identifying overlooked data points that lead to a better overall product. That nuance is often lost in translation.
For context, Moneyball was a term popularized by Billy Beane, who sought to make a small-market baseball franchise competitive in the non-salary-capped world of Major League Baseball. In many ways, the current state of college football mirrors that environment—there’s no real cap on what boosters can spend to build a roster. It's a reflection of the MLB model, where high-value teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox often dominate by outspending their competitors in free agency.
Sound familiar?
I’ve seen the term Moneyball used to describe Oregon’s cautious approach in the first recruiting cycle of the House Settlement era, but I’m not sure that’s accurate. If it were, it seems unlikely the Ducks would have worked so hard to land players like Jared Curtis, Jackson Cantwell, Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, and Chris Henry Jr.—all of whom come with hefty price tags. There’s no clear dataset that says “Player A is a better value than Player B” in these cases. What Oregon is doing is less about analytics and more about navigating the evolving NIL landscape—politicking through early NIL Go enforcement while playing the long game, rather than overspending.
This isn’t Moneyball. It’s not an analytics-driven decision to pursue a quarterback based on some abstract data characteristic. A more accurate framework might be Systems Theory from organizational behavior—an approach that focuses on how different elements within a program interact with one another and with the external environment. It emphasizes relationships, feedback loops, and interdependence to achieve organizational goals.
Yes, that may seem like nitpicking, especially since most people use Moneyball loosely. But it’s worth noting that Oregon’s approach isn’t just rooted in cost-efficiency or selective spending—it’s rooted in preserving a sustainable and functional structure.
None of that is the real issue, though. The biggest problem with Moneyball and its many spinoffs is this: the originators of the concept—the Oakland A’s—never won a title using it. They won plenty of regular-season games and made the playoffs often, but they weren’t built to win championships.
There’s still one incontrovertible truth in college football: national champions in the playoff era have been teams with multiple top-five recruiting classes. Sure, not every five-star recruit pans out. And yes, a lightly recruited quarterback like Stetson Bennett (a Rivals 2-star in 2017) can win a title. But that Georgia team was stacked on defense—one of the most dominant units in modern college football history. They had built up so much elite talent that missing at quarterback didn’t prevent them from winning.
So while it’s fair to say that Oregon missed on at least its top two quarterback targets this cycle, finding a high-upside talent like Bryson Beaver is a testament to the Ducks' structured approach. If the systems already in place were blown up to land one marquee player, the ripple effects could damage the very culture the staff has worked so hard to build. And that culture is what gives Oregon staying power.
Because without a strong internal culture, no amount of raw talent can win you a national title. Just ask Paul Hackett. Or Clay Helton. Or any number of coaches who assembled all-star rosters without building a championship foundation.
Does it sting for fans to see elite recruits choose other schools? Absolutely. But the true cost of landing them may be far more than the NIL deal itself. And that’s a price neither Marshall Malchow, Dan Lanning, Phil Knight, Pat Kilkenny, nor Rob Mullens is willing to pay.
RECRUITING NOTES:
- There are some rumblings that Ethan ‘Boobie’ Feaster is likely to head to USC and that could mean some very good news for Oregon fans. The Trojans already have four wide receivers committed and would only take one of Jalen Lott or Feaster. Given it looks like Feaster is going to pick USC, I like where Oregon stands with Lott right now. Lott has scheduled a commitment for July 8.
- As far as other receivers, I just don’t see Calvin Russell coming to Oregon. He had a really good trip to Michigan and if he is going to leave the state of Florida, right now I would pick Michigan as the most likely spot.
- I don’t think Oregon gets both Nick Abrams and Tyler Atkinson. I know some Georgia folks said that the Bulldogs were not going to be likely to pay the NIL value Atkinson needed and I don’t think that’s true. Atkinson is the kind of linebacker that the Bulldogs specialize in getting and I doubt that Kirby Smart is going to let him go out of state without a fight.
- Devin Jackson was a name some folks were tracking at safety, but his recruitment has been tough to read. Jackson keeps things very close to the vest, and so do the programs involved — no one is really giving much to go on. Nebraska and Miami sources shared very different perspectives on where they think things stand, while Oregon contacts haven’t said much at all.
- Davon Benjamin has not yet set a decision date. The staff feel optimistic with him and I think the fact that he came away from the Washington visit without getting overly excited is a part of the reason that the staff feel optimistic here. Still some work to do, but Benjamin has been a priority target for a long time and I think that they are going to work really hard and get this one done. I still like where the Ducks stand with Abrams following the visit, so we will see if they can get that one done.
- The Ducks are still working to get a couple of Cal commits flipped as they would like to get both Tommy Tofi and Koloi Keli on board with Oregon. Given where Oregon stands right now with Immanuel Iheanacho and Kelvin Obot, that would be a very good offensive line class.
- While losing Ryder Lyons to BYU stings – if he goes through with his religious mission, the sting factor is for 2027 and the Ducks are sitting in a good spot with several early 2027 QB offers. The top player right now on their board is Alabaster (AL) four-star Trent Seaborn with others kike Caden Jones, Sione Kaho, and Kamden Lopati also showing interest early.
All for now!
