The Oregon defense regressed in nearly every statistical category last year despite a promising personnel group. Though anchored by senior pass rushers Justin Hollins and Jalen Jelks, both NFL prospects, the Ducks allowed over 250 passing yards, 160 rushing yards and over 29 points per game in a down conference.
Opponents converted over 41 percent on third downs. Gifted and quick, Hollins led the team in sacks with just 6.5. The scheme wasn't doing enough to create opportunities for him. Unleashed at the East-West Shrine Game on January 19th, he won Defensive MVP honors with 10 tackles, three for loss, two sacks and a fumble recovery in one afternoon.
The Ducks were too easy to neutralize and made journeymen running backs look beastly. They slept through first halves on the road at Washington State, Utah and Arizona, playing their way out of the conference race.
A big reason why was a distracted and poorly focused defensive coordinator. Jim Leavitt, who had built a considerable and well-deserved reputation as a mastermind of disruptive and inventive defenses, seemed more concerned about his next job than his current one. He actively campaigned for head coach openings, even recruiting players for jobs he didn't have yet. He was out of step with a staff that was all-in and thoroughly committed to a top ten effort in recruiting.
They'd shown improvement the year before. The Ducks had the talent to be much better. The dude mailed it in. In a heartbreaking loss to Stanford, his unit allowed 11.5 yards per pass attempt, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Enter Andy Avalos, a up-and-coming coach who wants to be here, the innovator and motivator Jim Leavitt was at Colorado.
With the Broncos the 37-year-old Avalos crafted a defense that outperformed Oregon's in nearly every major statistical category last season. They allowed a field goal less per game in an offense-crazy conference.
Despite having Troy Dye, Jelks and Hollins the Ducks averaged just 1.67 sacks per game in PAC-12 play in 2019. In 3 seasons as Boise State defensive coordinator Avalos had ELEVEN players with 4 or more sacks, ranking 52nd, 21st and 39th in total defense and 29th, 38th and 30th in scoring defense. Bronco linebacker Curtis Weaver had 20.5 sacks over the last two campaigns.
The heart of his philosophy is aggressiveness. This spring he told the beat reporters, "We're going to be multiple. We're going to move around and do different stuff."
"Instead of defense always having to be the one to react to the offense, we want the offense have to react to us. There might be some presnap movement, some postsnap movement, a combination of both. We're trying to get the offense to react to us so we can be on the attack as well."
What makes his scheme so effective are the shifts and multiple looks that create confusion and hesitation for the offensive line. Often his front seven will move just before the snap, a technique that Washington State has used to give the Oregon offense a lot of trouble.
In this scheme the Ducks can present an even or an odd front, rush five or rush three. The opposing quarterback can't be sure of what's coming, and neither can his blockers.
Oregon's personnel is perfect for what Avalos wants to do. The Ducks have recruited a corps of long, fast, versatile, athletic players, like Lamar Winston, Kayvon Thibodeaux, D.J. Johnson and Adrian Jackson, who will thrive in the new system. They will put a hand in the ground. They will stand up. They will drop back and cover. Their versatility allows the team to present a variety of looks to the offense with the same players on the field, adjusting quickly to offensive packages and situations. The attack is never static.
Think it might elevate Dye's draft status to finish his senior year with ten sacks?
Last week in "Flock Talk" Scott Reed talked about the coming revolution in Oregon defensive football and the players who will fuel it:
The name to really watch this season? Adrian Jackson. I know he really opened some eyes a year ago, but this year he looks very much like an SEC linebacker. He is bigger, stronger and faster than a year ago and his knowledge of the game has increased by a wide margin over the course of the off-season. Andy Avalos really thinks he has the potential to be an all-conference level player this year. This much I know; the staff really expect this defense to be nasty all season long.
There may not be the same level of ‘NFL prospects” along the defensive line, but every other level is full of NFL potential; Baker was rated the No. 5 defensive lineman against the run in the Pac-12 a season ago and this defense will be better in both phases. It helps to have a coordinator fully invested in the program, culture and city in which the program is located. That investment by Avalos has carried over to the players who are ‘all in’ with Avalos.
In advanced stats there is a number called havoc rate. It's defined by advanced stats guru Bill Connelly as "the percentage of plays in which a defense either recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble, or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up). If QB hurries were a reliable stat (at the college level, there is far too much inconsistency in how they are recorded), they would be included here, too."
Dye, Thibodeaux, Winston, Jackson and Johnson will be in the business of creating havoc, mayhem and disruption for opposing offenses. Quarterbacks will no longer be comfortable, picking apart the secondary. This defense will match up better by dictating the matchups, and limiting what opponents have time to do.
Last season the Ducks had a havoc rate of 18.1%. That ranked 32nd in the country. Clemson's was 3rd in the FBS at 21%. Alabama rated 2nd at 21.2% That's the definition of closing the gap: how disruptive you are on defense.
Another element of the coming transformation is the work the players have committed themselves to since January. This is a roster of sculpted and remade bodies.
There's a shortage of SEC-caliber bodies on the West Coast, so Aaron Feld and his staff have created some of their own. The difference when Oregon takes the field on August 31st will be immediately apparent. News from training camp will confirm it.
In the spring, Avalos loved the immediate response from his players. "The guys are working really, really hard. They're excited about what we're doing and we're out on the field having fun and playing with energy," he said.
It's a dramatic contrast to the checked-out atmosphere the DC projected last November. Now the Ducks have a coordinator who is all-in and wants to be here, more excited about the job he has than disgruntled about the job he got passed over for. An uneasy marriage was resolved in a bloodless divorce. There's harmony in the office, a staff with well-coordinated goals.
