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Here is an update as of 2/27/12:

-Lunardi and the ESPN Bracketology crew moved the Ducks down to the "Next Four Out" list, meaning the Ducks are about 5th in line to get into the tourney.

-As of today, the Ducks are 2nd in the Pac-12 in RPI ratings: Cal (35), Oregon (52), Washington (53), Arizona (71), Colorado (77)

-As of today in Bracketology, Lunardi has Cal in as a 9 seed, Washington in as a 10 seed (and rising), and Arizona in as an 11 seed (and rising)

-Colorado is listed directly under Oregon on the "Next Four Out" list as well


Based on these updates, here is my opinion:

-Ducks MUST win out this week over Colorado & Utah. If they do so, they will at least get a 1-4 seed in the Pac-12 Tourney, giving them a first day bye in Los Angeles

-They then MUST win their first game, as it will be against a 5-12 ranked team in the conference, and therefore, a team not vying for a spot in the NCAA tourney-- These are those dangerous spoiler games that we see underdogs winning every year (including the Ducks against UCLA last year).

-I believe they MUST win in the semi-finals, as this will most likely be against one of the Pac-12 teams already considered to be in the tourney (AZ, WASH, CAL). If it isn't against one of these teams, a win is even more crucial as a conference tournament loss to a non-NCAA tourney team with a low RPI will almost assure the Ducks a bid...to the NIT.

-A Pac-12 Championship Game appearance and good showing (win or close loss) I think will be enough to put them in the NCAA Tournament, most likely as a 10-12 seed.

What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Is winning the Pac-12 tourney a must? Do we need to only win one game in LA? Is the Pac-12 getting jipped? Does the Pac-12 only deserve 2 bids?

Sound off right here-



Posted on 2/27 2:09 PM | IP: Logged

Well I certainly agree that the Ducks need to sweep the next two to go to the big dance.

I certainly like the fact we have to have this discussion. Going into the season and after the quitters left I had serious doubts this team could do anything this year.



Posted on 2/28 5:23 AM | IP: Logged


Originally posted by A.J. Jacobson:
Well I certainly agree that the Ducks need to sweep the next two to go to the big dance.

I certainly like the fact we have to have this discussion. Going into the season and after the quitters left I had serious doubts this team could do anything this year.



This...the fact that we are even having this discussion is great. Altman has done a great job.



Posted on 2/28 6:14 AM | IP: Logged

I fully agree Kevin and it's going to be fun watching the team make it so.



Posted on 2/28 11:54 AM | IP: Logged

Really tough night of basketball for the Ducks to watch last night-

With a lot of bubble teams in action, the Ducks's could have had their chances improved for them, but all did not go so well-

Colorado St. who sits just above the Ducks on the "First Four Out" list, took down a projected 5 seed in the tournament, 17th ranked UNLV, 66-59. CSU is undefeated at home in league play, and this win definitely bolstered their chances at a bid.

South Florida, who is first on the "First Four Out" list, also picked up a huge road victory, beating #18 Louisville, 58-51. The Bulls struggled in non-conference play, but have really picked it up, and with a 12-5 clip in Big East conference play, which is a grind night in and night out, their chances at a bid are looking better and better.

Northwestern, who is third on the "Last Four In" list, had 11th ranked Ohio State at home. Though they lost, 75-73 on a last second jumper by Jared Sullinger, this was a "good-looking" loss as they took a top-tier team down to the wire. They've had trouble with close games at home, and this loss doesn't hurt their chances at a bid, but does not help them either.

Miami, first on the "Last Four In" list, lost to NC State on the road, 77-73. The ACC is deeper than in years past, and projected to get 5 bids, and this loss drops Miami a bit down this list.

Texas is third on the "Last Four In" list, and had a must-win game against Oklahoma, and they took care of business. In a glass-half full/ roundabout way, the better Texas does, the better Oregon State's win over Texas looks..and therefore the Ducks win over OSU look better?

All Ducks can do is win- tonight is a big one. Let's hope we hear some positive Bubble talk on ESPN tonight after the game....

This post was edited on 3/1 11:57 AM by kevinlarue



Posted on 3/1 11:22 AM | IP: Logged

It would be nice to see some Pac-12 love from the guys on ESPN. I feel despite the consecutive wins that both Oregon and Colorado have been racking up, they find themselves moving down the list of bubble teams. We can say last night did not help Oregon that much at all, as Kevin mentioned in the post above we did not get the results we were looking for from the other buble teams. Lets hope that Oregon can take care of business tonight and not find ourselves with the bursted bubble.



Posted on 3/1 11:46 AM | IP: Logged

Evon/Kevin,

How many win in the P12T will it take to get in? I think at least two but a finals appearance would seal the deal.

Thoughts?

-Jerry



Posted on 3/6 11:45 AM | IP: Logged

I think a first round loss would guarantee us a number 1 or 2 seed in the NIT. A win against Utah/Colorado would not help us much, but it would keep our name in the talks. If we are able to win against Utah/Colorado we would most likely find ourselves playing California.

I think if we are able to beat California who is currently listed as a 10 seed in the NCAA tournament and has an RPI of 37 would solidify the Ducks in the tournament. A win in the finals would obviously be the icing on top of the cake and give us a for sure in. But lets say the Ducks lost another close one to California, would that be enough to get us in?

I think a close loss to California would mean that the Golden Bears would need to win the Pac-12 tournament if the Ducks want to keep their hopes alive. It will make their RPI stronger and make themselves look better in the eyes of the tournament committee.

With all that being said these are my thoughts. No wins and were in the NIT, one win and were most likely in the NIT, two wins and were in, 3 wins and Neil Everett will make sure you know the Ducks are in.



Posted on 3/6 3:35 PM | IP: Logged

Who to root for today??

Minnesota over Northwestern.

Iowa St. over Texas.

Boston College over NC State.

Georgia Tech over Miami.

Notre Dame over South Florida

TCU over Colorado St.

Georgia over Mississippi St.

and of course, the Ducks over the Buffaloes!

Check here for updates throughout the day



Posted on 3/8 9:13 AM | IP: Logged

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