I think a first round loss would guarantee us a number 1 or 2 seed in the NIT. A win against Utah/Colorado would not help us much, but it would keep our name in the talks. If we are able to win against Utah/Colorado we would most likely find ourselves playing California.
I think if we are able to beat California who is currently listed as a 10 seed in the NCAA tournament and has an RPI of 37 would solidify the Ducks in the tournament. A win in the finals would obviously be the icing on top of the cake and give us a for sure in. But lets say the Ducks lost another close one to California, would that be enough to get us in?
I think a close loss to California would mean that the Golden Bears would need to win the Pac-12 tournament if the Ducks want to keep their hopes alive. It will make their RPI stronger and make themselves look better in the eyes of the tournament committee.
With all that being said these are my thoughts. No wins and were in the NIT, one win and were most likely in the NIT, two wins and were in, 3 wins and Neil Everett will make sure you know the Ducks are in.