Oregon missed out on one of the nation’s top recruits when D.J. Uiagalelei declared for Clemson on Sunday. Having been in his final two, it stung more than most announcements. That in turn has fans of Duck recruiting wondering where things stand after taking that hit.

In order to analyze the Class of 2020, we look at history.

The pace of college football recruiting should be looked at in two parts: Before early signing and after. The BE /AE cutoff year is the class of 2018. For Oregon that was the recruiting cycle when the Ducks had two head coaches, Willie Taggart and Mario Cristobal. Cristobal had the unenviable task of being named to the job with one week before the inaugural early signing date. While suddenly preparing his new team for a bowl game.

That is the context and here are the numbers looking back the last five recruiting classes and 2020.

The chart above shows that even if Oregon does not get a commit for the rest of this month, they are still exactly on pace with the two other AE classes. It could even be argued that they are ahead of those because the seven commitments are for less slots. Last cycle the Ducks signed 26, the year before 24. The Class of 2020 will be smaller than those two.

In this business, we boil down the perceived “quality” of the recruits into number of stars. For college scholarship players that range is from two to five. This number also very closely correlates to final class rank. To gain perspective for this year we compare it to the last five.

If Cristobal and staff can keep recruiting like they have so far, they have an opportunity to land the highest ranked recruiting class in school history. While the class may be relatively small, this level of quality could top last year’s No. 7 finish. To do this they would need to probably sign a five-star or two, something that is within reach.

No, coming in second for the nation’s No. 1 player is not fun. But the Ducks need to shake this one off and look at the big picture. Recruiting for the Class of 2020 is shaping up very nicely. The class is on track for being one of the best in school history. It is growing as fast or faster than it ever has.

The Oregon staff is about one-third done with filling this class. So far, so good.