There couldn't be two more different teams at this moment.
No. 8 Oregon (6-1, 4-0 Pac-12) has won six straight games, each one seemingly more impressive than the one before it, led by one of the most potent offensive attacks in the country and a defense that has made enough plays when needed. The Ducks control their destiny in the Pac-12 race and remain on the edge of the College Football Playoff hunt.
Meanwhile, Cal (3-4, 1-3) has lost three straight games, is facing an uphill climb just to reach bowl eligibility, and has to rely on its defense to keep games close as its stagnant offense tries to get going.
The Ducks and Golden Bears meet Saturday at 12:30 p.m. PT inside California Memorial Stadium (on FS1).
Leading into the matchup, our Duck Sports Authority team came together for the weekly staff roundtable to trade our thoughts and predictions for the game.
1. What win percentage do you give Oregon for each of the remaining games?
Brandon Gibson: "Starting with this weekend, even though Berkeley has been troublesome for the Ducks in the past, this Duck offense is different and Cal’s offense is inept. I’d give the Ducks an 85% chance of victory at Cal. Colorado is likely the worst team in the league, yet they found a way to beat Cal. That should tell you something about the first two teams on this list, and about the Ducks' 95% chance of beating Colorado in Folsom. Oregon returns home for a rivalry game against Washington, and while they Huskies are definitely better this year on offense, they aren’t the same team on the road as at home. I’d give Oregon a 70% chance, with Washington’s offense being the only thing that gives them a puncher’s chance in this matchup. Utah was a big struggle for the Ducks last year, but both of the teams are much different this season, with Oregon’s offense greatly improving and Utah’s defense regressing. Utah should provide one of the better challenges, but this one is at Autzen, and the crowd will be fired up. Chances of victory? 60%. Ducks close out on the road, and could be playing for a Pac-12 Championship birth against OSU. This one will be a bit of a battle thanks to the game being in Corvallis and the Beavers defense, but I still think the odds are in favor of Oregon thanks to the superior offensive line play. I’d give the Ducks a 65% chance in this one."
Scott Reed: "Cal: 75% Win probability. The Cal defense is not as good as it has been in past seasons, though still better than most left on Oregon’s schedule, but the Cal offense has not been productive this season.
"Colorado: 90% win probability. I am still not sure how Colorado beat Cal. Their defense is bad and their offense is worse. It is a road game – at altitude and possible bad weather, but the Ducks just have too much talent here.
"Washington: 60% win probability. Being a home game really helps here. The Husky offense is very dynamic at the Oregon defensive weakness: passing the ball. That should keep the Huskies close for three quarters, but their defense has been porous all season long.
"Utah: 56.5% win probability. The Utah defense is not what it has been in the past, but still has some dangerous playmakers. Offensively, Andy Ludwig has the team playing exciting and dynamic football and they should be able to score points. Another game where the home field advantage is going to be very helpful.
"Oregon State: 53% Oregon win probability. This will depend a lot on health. The Beavers do not have the same kind of quality depth as Oregon. When healthy, their defense is probably the best Oregon has left on the schedule and their offense can move the ball. Will they have enough to overcome a more talented team? Having the Ducks at Reser is going to help Oregon State. I still think the Ducks win, but it could be really tight."
Ryan Young: "Not to oversimplify it, but I honestly don't think any Pac-12 team outside of maybe Utah can beat this Oregon team (including USC in a potential Pac-12 championship clash, as the Trojans don't have the defense to stop this Ducks offense.) As for the games on the schedule, I'm going to be a little more aggressive than my colleagues ...
"Cal -- 100 percent. The Bears are bad, plain and simple. Their offensive line was already a liability and just lost one of its best players for the season in right guard Matthew Cindric. Cal would need 12 quarters to maybe score enough points to contend with the Ducks.
"Colorado -- 100 percent. The Buffaloes are likely the worst Power 5 team of them all. I still don't know how they even managed to beat Cal, but that says more about Cal. The Buffs have zero chance of even making it competitive with Oregon.
"Washington -- 65 percent. I don't think the Huskies are very consistent, but they have the potential to put it together on any given week. With one of the top passing attacks in the country, it's possible they could hang in a shootout with Oregon, but this game is Autzen and so I'd still be confident in the Ducks.
"Utah -- 58 percent. These Utes aren't the usual Utes. Their defense is faulty and vulnerable and their run game isn't quite what it has been in past years. But when healthy (he wasn't this week vs. Washington State), QB Cam Rising is a dynamic dual-threat who elevates the entire team. And they'll always be well-coached. I'd have this at 50-50 if it were in Utah, but in Autzen, I have to give the edge to the Ducks.
"Oregon State -- 60 percent. This will be a tough road game. I have a lot of respect for the Beavers. The only question is health. They've played with a backup QB the last three games. But this finale is a ways away still. It will be competitive, but Oregon is simply the better team and would need to turn the ball over a few times to be in serious trouble."
