DSA Roundtable: Where for Thibodeaux?
The early signing period for the class of 2019 is nearly upon us, with four days left until they heat up the fax machine inside the Hatfield-Dowling Complex in Eugene. But even so, today is no ordinary day for Oregon recruiting.
For starters, the Duck staff has a large group of highly-ranked visitors in town for official visits, including eleven committed members of this class, and four coveted uncommitted players including the No. 1 defensive tackle in the nation.
Then there is Kayvon Thibodeaux. The five-star rated defensive end will be making his announcement between his final two: Alabama and Oregon. His pick will be telecast live on ESPN at halftime of the New Mexico bowl which kicks off at 11:00 am PT. We anticipate the actual announcement around 1:00 pm PT.
In this edition of DSA Roundtable, we ask the ultimate question of our analyst team of Scott Reed, Dale Newton and A.J. Jacobson: Which school will Thibodeaux pick?
Scott Reed: At one point, Oregon was the leader for Thibodeaux. Following his visit for the Washington game, the Ducks were in the perfect spot. Had signing day been two days later, I think he would have been locked in. Even afterward, the game resonated with him and the academic side really lined up well for him and the Ducks.
While I think Oregon has done everything they can to get Thibodeaux to sign with the Ducks, his visit to Alabama also shaped him from a cultural standpoint. He took a trip to see some culturally significant history which moved him. In the end, I think that Alabama just checks off more of his boxes and that’s where he goes.
Dale Newton: Oregon is going head-to-head with Alabama for two of the best defensive players in the country in Sopsher and Thibodeaux, the kind of rare, big, gifted athletic specimens a program needs to reach the highest levels of football. The kind of players Alabama identifies and lands better than anyone in the game.
The greatest likelihood is that the Crimson Tide wins this sweepstakes, just like they win almost everything else. But you can't become a nationally relevant program without competing for the best talent. You can't land the trophy marlin without rowing out to deep water and risking a battle with the sharks. Oregon is highly likely to come up short for Thibodeaux, a 6-5, 230-pound defensive end from Oaks Christian High in Westlake Village, California outside of Los Angeles, just as they have for a host of other great prospects.
Alabama is a logical choice for a player who has NFL potential and aspirations.
The Ducks are getting closer, and they've gotten themselves in the conversation. Thibodeaux had a great visit experience in Eugene, and he has tremendous respect for the Oregon coaches.
Soon, a player like this is going to make an announcement that truly shocks the world, much like De'Anthony Thomas did.
It won't be Saturday, though. For now Oregon is still just another hat on the table.
A.J. Jacobson: I am sure that Kayvon Thibodeaux likes Oregon a lot. He has visited multiple times on his own dime, and to make his final two leaves no doubt about how highly he views the Ducks. Certainly, Oregon could make a compelling case to him and his family about how Eugene would be better for him than Tuscaloosa.
But at his level of being an elite recruit in the realm of college football, the probabilities do not favor Oregon. Head-to-head against the Crimson Tide for a blue-chip defensive line recruit is a formidable task. Alabama lands them all the time. Oregon rarely does. It is a battle that I do not like the Ducks’ odds for based solely on history and precedent.
Could Kayvon Thibodeaux pick Oregon? Absolutely yes. But it would surprise me. For the sake of this Roundtable I will predict Alabama.
