Duck football: Five questions for 2016

During this decade the Oregon Ducks have been a dominant force in college football. Contending for the national title was the norm during the Chip Kelly era and early in the tenure of Mark Helfrich. But last season ended with a fizzle, losing in remarkable fashion to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Then for 2016 the preseason Pac-12 polls have been humbling, with the Oregon picked to average third in the Northern Division behind Stanford and Washington.

As the Ducks kick off 2016 fall camp Duck Sports Authority takes a look at five questions about this year’s team which might explain the moderated expectations.

This one is obvious and it cannot be overstated. When the Ducks have a quality, healthy quarterback they generally win. When they do not, they struggle. Last year was the perfect example with Vernon Adams. The same can be said for Marcus Mariota’s tenure. That is because while for most offenses quarterback is the key position, for Oregon it has been the difference between winning the Rose Bowl and losing the Alamo Bowl.

For this season the Ducks will be breaking in a new signal-caller yet again and they have two primary choices heading into fall camp. Dakota Prukop is a winner and graduate transfer just like Vernon Adams. But at the FCS level. Travis Jonsen is a redshirt freshman with a season of practice and a fall camp under his belt. But except for a few spring game passes in May, nobody outside the program has really ever seen him play since high school. So with no information other than potential, this position, and the team, is a huge question mark.

Where to start? Despite some solid individual players, the Duck defense was horrific by all measures last season as reflected by the gut-wrenching statistics such as No. 115 of 127 nationally in scoring defense. As a result, the tenure of former LB coach Don Pellum to defensive coordinator was a short one. Before the season ended Helfrich had made up his mind to bring in somebody else and that ended up being former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke.

Will the defense improve for 2016? One can only hope. But that is why this is such a big question mark and the spring game did not shed any light on whether this will be a better unit going forward.

When Mark Helfrich decided to go a new direction with the defense and bring in Hoke, major changes were afoot. With the new DC came his favored base defense, the 4-3. This was after years of running the 3-4 as a base under Nick Aliotti and then Don Pellum.

On the surface this is simply a formation change but the implications are bigger than that. Now the Ducks need less linebacker and more defensive linemen on the roster. The base assignment for the DL changes from a 2-gap responsibility to a 1-gap. As a result, they can be more aggressive matriculating towards the quarterback during a play.

The reports from coaches and players from the closed spring camp were positive about the changes. But what would you expect them to say? The true test will be the results on the field. Will the Ducks only stop 42% of third downs again in 2016? Will the players (and recruits) take to Hoke’s no-nonsense style of coaching? We shall see.

Ah…the trenches. Talk about quarterback all you want, but it can be argued that in the trenches is where games are won and lost. For 2016 the big fellas on both sides of the ball are question marks. On the offensive side Steve Greatwood will be looking for new starters at center and right tackle, while Ron Aiken will be staffing both interior linemen with new faces.

With 40% of the OL and 50% of the DL new to starting roles, how strong will those units be? September 17th in Lincoln, Nebraska will go a long way towards answering this question.

Here is where we have to separate the personal from the professional. On a personal level, Mark Helfrich is a great person to be around. Smart, funny, compassionate; all qualities of a great person. So the question here is not whether he is a great person, but if he is a great football coach. And frankly, that question has not been answered.

Certainly he was able to take Chip Kelly’s team, offense and coaching staff and maintain the Ducks’ winning ways. His first season in 2013 was an 11-2, Alamo Bowl winning triumph. In 2014 his team made a run for the national championship, crushing Florida State in the Rose Bowl then losing to Ohio State for the NC. But then last year the Ducks were a relatively pedestrian 9-4, including an embarrassing second-half meltdown in San Antonio.

So which path will the 2016 Ducks take here at the crossroads between championships and mediocrity? The answer will be prominent in Mark Helfrich’s biography.