Stars matter, but so do evaluation, work ethic and development.
In terms of aggregate recruit ratings, Washington and USC have the best talent in the conference, yet Oregon and Utah are favored to win the North and South divisions.
The Ducks lag significantly behind SC and the Huskies in terms of 4- and 5-star talent on the roster, chiefly because of some down recruiting years and attrition during the period of three-head-coaches-in-three-years.
However, they've been able to close that talent gap with some great evaluation and development, plus four years of hard work by some quality players.
People misunderstand what being a three-star recruit means. Roughly 300,000 high school seniors play football in a given year. (Participation numbers are declining across the country.) In 2018 Rivals ranked 1,328 of those as 3-stars, less than one half of one percent (.44%) of the class.
A 3-star is an elite player. Even so, it's remarkable for the Ducks to have 8 5th-year seniors playing significant roles out of the 2015 class, which included 22 recruits. That's an excellent success rate, a testimony to some solid scouting and recruiting, particularly by Steve Greatwood.
Some highly-touted 4-stars from 2015 didn't make it: Canton Kaumatule, Zach Okun, and Taj Griffin had medical issues. Alex Ofodile, Travis Waller, Kirk Merritt and Malik Lovette couldn't crack the depth chart and transferred out. Ugo Amadi completed his stellar Oregon career in four years; now he's making some highlight film plays trying to lock down a roster spot with the Seattle Seahawks.
From this class, a down recruiting year due to coaching turnover and deterioration of culture, there is less depth but two dramatically significant acquisitions at the top of the class. Three-stars Herbert and Dye have developed into NFL prospects and two of the best players in the conference.
Four-star Dillon Mitchell had an outstanding season last year and elected to leave early for the NFL draft.
Outside of these three, the 2016 class had a very high bust rate. Touchdown Terry Wilson transferred to Kentucky and became a starting quarterback there, leading the Wildcats to one of their best seasons in years. Tristan Wallace, Logan Bathke, Jacob Capra, Darrian Franklin, Eric Briscoe, Keith Simms, Ratu Mafileo, Wayne Kirby all washed out. A.J. Hotchkins got hurt, transferred to UTEP and became a starting linebacker for the Miners.
The 2016 commitments had more misses than hits, but two of the three-stars have established themselves as Oregon all-timers.
Mario Cristobal and staff are closing the talent gap at a rapid rate. Their 2018 class included 12 four stars, a group headlined by freshman All-American Penei Sewell. The 2019 class was the best haul in the conference, featuring instant-impact freshmen like 5-star Kayvon Thibodeaux, 4-star cornerback Mykael Wright and glue-fingered technician Mycah Pittman, a four-star wide receiver. In all, 13 4-stars and one 5-star.
They've also supplemented and fast-tracked their roster overhaul with judicious use of the transfer portal. Juwan Johnson, D.J. Johnson and Dallas Warmack are significant additions that boost the 2019 roster. All three were 4-star prospects coming out of high school.
When the Ducks take the field this fall versus the Huskies and Trojans, they'll be spotting them some star ratings, but they have the football players and leadership to level the playing field. They have the talent to win now at a high level, provided they prove it out with discipline, focus, consistency and sound game plans.
