Rivals national recruiting analyst Greg Smith is joined by national recruiting director Adam Gorney, Scott Reed of DuckSportsAuthority.com and Seth Berry of TheMaizeAndBlueReview.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Missouri is the leader for No. 1 offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell.
Gorney: FICTION. The five-star offensive tackle could very well end up at Missouri since it's one of the top programs recruiting him and it's the in-state program, but I don't think Jackson Cantwell has a top team nor is anywhere near the stage of looking at his recruitment in that way. Yeah, sure, maybe he has a top 14 and some of the programs on that list are standing out more than others but to say the Tigers lead, I wouldn't go there yet. The Nixa, Mo., standout could end up in Columbia but it's way too premature to say any team is the "current leader" for Cantwell.
Smith: FICTION. Cantwell is as sought-after as any prospect in America and he’s only recently cut his list down to 14. So we have a long way to go in this recruitment process. The in-state Missouri Tigers certainly are one of the teams best positioned with the five-star. But to call them the favorite is premature. I actually don’t think there is a favorite at the moment. Oregon and Georgia are two heavyweights in the mix. So are Nebraska and Arkansas as teams that have been recruiting him hard. This recruitment still has a lot of twists and turns. It should be an exciting one to follow.
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2. Michigan needs to land half of the 2026 in-state four-stars for the cycle to be a success.
Berry: FICTION. When it’s all said and done, it would surprise me if Michigan didn’t land at least half of the in-state four stars. But, if it doesn’t, it wouldn’t necessarily mean a failed class. While Michigan has established a great connection with Gregory Patrick, he is a Michigan State legacy and the Spartans will remain a major factor. The Wolverines stand in a good position, as of now, with Corey Sadler, Marcello Vitti and Khalief Canty. However, Michigan doesn’t have offers out to Lincoln Watkins and Ben Nichols at this point. Lincoln Keyes does have an offer from the Wolverines, but Michigan has shown it is willing to look all across the country to recruit tight ends (look at Colston Loveland from Idaho).
So, I expect Michigan to pull its weight in the 2026 class and recruit the state well, but have to see where the Wolverines are priority wise with Nichols, Watkins and Keyes as time goes on.
Smith: FACT. There are seven different players rated as four-stars in the 2026 class that reside in Michigan: Corey Sadler, Marcello Vitti, Gregory Patrick, Kalief Canty, Lincoln Keyes, Ben Nichols and Lincoln Watkins. Each is uncommitted right now. That amount of talent could really help to power a recruiting class. Then coach Sherrone Moore could continue supplementing with talent from Florida and other places.
As those players start coming off the board, how many of them wind up in Ann Arbor will be a big storyline.
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3. Oregon is a huge threat to land elite 2026 Midwest talent.
Reed: FACT. First the most obvious reality is that Oregon already has a commitment from Frankfort (Ill.) four-star Jonas Williams, the top-rated quarterback from the Midwest, but there is potential that the Ducks could get even more talent from the region.
The early start to the 2026 class for Oregon has been better than the 2025 class at this same point a year ago and that is going to generate a lot of momentum over the next year for this class. The staff has done a fantastic job developing a strong tie to the Midwest Region following their entry into the Big Ten this season and they know how important the region is to remaining at an elite level on the field.
Some of the prospects who have already shown legitimate interest are some of the best of the best. Elbert Hill made it to Eugene for SNL in July and that really seemed to take his interest to another level. Offensive lineman Jackson Cantwell and linebacker Cam Thomas have also expressed legitimate early interest. I expect Oregon to get involved with more prospects from the region in the coming months as well – especially some of the elite offensive linemen and tight ends in the region.
Will it win every battle? No. But I do think that Oregon will take in some elite talent and continue to create a strong presence in the Midwest.
Smith: FACT. If you look at the top prospects in the Midwest for the 2026 class it seems as if Oregon is involved with nearly each one. The Ducks already have their quarterback for the 2026 class with Illinois prospect Jonas Williams. They are also in the mix for several other elite prospects from the region. Inside linebacker Cam Thomas recently picked up an offer from Oregon and thinks highly of the program. Ohio cornerback Elbert Hill likes the Ducks, along with Ohio State.
The Ducks will also be involved until the end with five-star offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell. It’s a major developing story of how lethal the Ducks are becoming with recruiting the Midwest as they enter the Big Ten. Coach Dan Lanning’s program is now a problem on the trail that teams have to deal with.
