Fifth Quarter 2022: Reflections on the Ducks' 44-41 win over WSU
As Oregon entered conference play Saturday, the oddsmakers and game prediction algorithms (like FPI) all had better expectations of the Ducks' road trip to Washington State than many human analysts.
It seemed very trendy for analysts to pick Washington State. I am not going to call it East Coast bias, but there was certainly an overvaluation to the Cougars close win on the road at Wisconsin, which overshadowed the reality of what the Cougars had on the field.
I said that I thought the 12.7 points-per-game average allowed by the Cougars' defense was extremely flawed based on competition level and that proved to be true. The signature early season win for Washington State was that win over a Wisconsin team that is clearly flawed and nowhere near the levels of past years (like 2019) when the Badgers were legitimate B1G conference title contenders.
Oregon also has some flaws, which were further exposed on the trip to Pullman, Wash., but the Ducks' scheduling of two early seasons tests may have helped them in this game and is certainly going to make them better and more battle-tested later in the season. This was one of those games where coaches can be happy with a win, yet still have teachable moments for the week.
Continuing our post game tradition, we look back at the win over Washington State with our Fifth Quarter analysis.
Offense
This may not be the best pass defense Oregon sees over the rest of the season, but the Cougars still came into this game sporting a solid pass defense that was giving up just 217 yards per game through the air. Washington State had sacked the QB 14 times through those games, allowed just 4 touchdown passes and intercepting 5 passes.
And then Oregon went into Pullman and torched the Cougar defense to the tune of 446 passing yards with 3 touchdowns, and the much-discussed interception. Bo Nix was not perfect. His interception to Francisco Mauigoa was actually a worse throw than his deep interception against Georgia in the first game. Not because of the throw itself, but the context and controllability of the throw. He made a good read, a little deeper pass that leads the running back into the end zone (especially against an LB who had jumped the route and tipped that off early enough to notice) is a touchdown and changes the entire complexion of this game.
But I am not going to follow the typical national narrative that says this was the “full Bo Nix Experience” because I think that is lazy writing. Nix made a mistake, no doubt, but he played a fantastic game before and after that throw. As I said after the game, the ability of Nix to continue playing aggressively and continue to play well throughout the rest of the game is the only proof we really need that the concept of the full Bo Nix Experience is flawed.
He seems to have grown because he did not let that play define him in this game and, in some ways, I think this makes him an even better player. Without the intense pressure that he faced at Auburn to not only be perfect but to somehow be better than both his father and Cam Newton combined, would have been crushing to the spirit of a lot of young men. Nix is not that player. He knows that he can make a mistake and keep moving. He knows that he can be good.
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