The Oregon offense has a chance to be good in 2019. Last season they ranked No. 25 in the NCAA in scoring offense, averaging 34.8 points per game, along with 427 yards per game in total offense. But at times this offense was much better than those numbers suggest.
And at others worse. The 7-6 slugfest of a Redbox Bowl win over Michigan State was a low point for offensive productivity, but they were not sharp in their road losses to Washington State and Arizona either.
Heading into 2019, reasons for optimism abound. The Ducks have talent, and they return ten of their 11 starters from the 2018 team. They signed one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, and ten of them have shown up for spring camp as early enrollees.
And heading into his second season at the helm in Eugene, Mario Cristobal has been transforming the staff into his mold. On the offensive side of the ball, he brought in Jovon Bouknight as wide receivers coach, looking to shore up the unit with the widest talent/productivity gap last season. He also filled a void naming Bobby Williams tight ends coach, adding to his role as special teams coordinator.
But the catalyst for all this to work will rest on the arm of the quarterback, the single most vital position on any football team.
In this edition of For Better or Worse, we look at this key to the passing game and decide how its 2019 outlook stacks up against 2018.
Losses: Braxton Burmeister. Burmeister entered the transfer portal in January, and a month later chose to move to Blacksburg, Virginia home of Virginia Tech.
As a Duck, Burmeister was 49 of 87 passing (56.3 percent) for 373 yards, with two touchdowns and six interceptions. He also rushed 71 times for 131 yards and three touchdowns.
Gains: Cale Millen. 6-foot-3, 209-pound Millen is one of the ten early enrollees from the Class of 2019. He showed up for camp with a foot injury and has been eased into action by the trainers and coaching staff. His frame and arm look good in drills, so the size and skill set basics are there.
Showing up early and learning the ropes this spring will make fall camp far more productive for Millen. The chances of him being prepared for 2019, even on an emergency basis, are much higher for it.
Outlook: The key to this analysis is obvious; Justin Herbert’s decision to forego the NFL draft and return for his senior season. Had he gone pro the situation would have been excruciating. During spring camp, talented but inexperienced and untested redshirt freshman Tyler Shough would have been competing against a dinged up true freshman Cale Millen for the starting role.
The three-deep of Herbert, Shough and Millen is an improvement over the 2018 chart of Herbert, Burmeister and Shough. If there was an issue with Shough last year it was not talent of which he has plenty. But in terms of knowing and being able to run the offense at the Pac-12 level, he was not ready.
The problem with Burmeister was simple. He did not have the arm talent necessary to face Pac-12 defensive backs. And for his own part, Herbert was dinged up a time or two.
This year the outlook is bright. A healthy Herbert has a chance to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country. With a seasoned and salty offensive line in front of him and a revamped receiving corps, he is set up for success.
When Tyler Shough is in the game, he is likely up for the challenge after over a year in the system. He has the arm and feet for the job. He just needs to prove he’s got the head for it as well, but that is an area he exceled at in high school.
If they need to go to Millen, disaster has struck, but at least he has the physical tools.
