Can Cristobal and Oregon land a fourth straight Top Ten recruiting class?

Countless requirements go into college football coaching, but talent acquisition is among the most important. Certainly, the ability to develop players, keep them healthy, keep them eligible, and get everyone executing the system are also crucial. But when you look at the top teams and programs in college football, they all have a common thread; they have a great coaching, and they acquire great talent.

Many people say stars do not matter and in some cases they don't. Some players overachieve from how they projected in high school; some underachieve. Some staffs develop better than others.

In the long run though, the teams that rank at the top of the recruiting charts year after year are the ones playing in the best bowls. These teams are always up there in the top echelons of the football and recruiting rankings, examples like Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and occasionally others.

In the last three recruiting cycles, there has been a new frequent flyer on the elite recruiting block. Since Mario Cristobal took the helm at Oregon, they have landed three consecutive top ten recruiting classes capped by the No. 3 nationally ranked 2021 class.

But the thing with recruiting is, it never ends. As of Saturday, with the addition of Rivals250 offensive guard Dave Iuli, the class 2022 is up to 16 commitments with only a handful of spaces left. It is a solid class by any measure and is currently ranked No. 7 in the nation.

But what are the chances Cristobal and his staff and land attack Top Ten class again this season?

Despite Oregon's lofty current national recruiting ranking of No. 7, it will be very tough to stay in the top ten as teams start adding more commitments. With 16 total commitments, Oregon is nearing the end of their additions. Numerous other teams below them in the team rankings have many more guys to add which will boost them past the Ducks.

To help explain the answer to this question a little background is required with the Rivals rankings. Rivals assigns every recruit a point value based on several factors including how highly they rank within the Rivals250, their Rivals rating among other things. On top of that, Rivals only takes the Top 20 ranked signees for each school, so any commitments over 20 do not get counted for additional team rankings points.

But in the most simplistic of terms, this can get boiled down to what kind of star ratings would the Ducks need to have a top ten class. With that in mind I looked back at the last five seasons to see what the cut off would be.

While this is not a perfect system, it gives a good estimation for the star average needed to have a top ten class over the last five years. Basically a 3.60 will get you a top ten class almost every year. Yes, if you have less than 20 commits, then a 3.6 may not do it. But with 20 commitments or more 3.6 will probably do it.

As it currently stands the Ducks have a star average of 3.5. Based on that it appears if nothing else changes and they add the next four guys with an average of 3.5 stars, they will probably fall just short of a top ten class this season.

Things are not over obviously. There are ways that they can move up in the rankings.

All their committed prospects have another season of football before heading to Eugene. Many players will receive a star bump based on their senior seasons and every Duck commit has that chance. They can also move up by attending camps, particularly the Rivals camps, and performing well there.

Also, if the Ducks get four more commitments and they are all four-stars, their star average would be exactly 3.60.

And of course, there is always the chance the Ducks can add another superstar signee which would bump their average up into the recruiting stratosphere once again by himself.

The bottom line is that there is certainly a chance for Mario Cristobal and staff to four-peat another Top Ten recruiting class. But they will need to close out very strong if that is going to happen.