Oregon hosts California Saturday night at 5:00 P.M. Pacific in Autzen Stadium, broadcast nationally on Fox.
The Bears are 4-1, 1-1 in conference after a 24-17 home loss to Arizona State last weekend, a game in which starting quarterback Chase Garbers injured his throwing shoulder just before halftime and had to leave the game. He's out. Backup Devon Modster will start, a junior transfer from UCLA who started two games in his freshman season with the Bruins.
The Ducks are 3-1, 1-0 in league play, alone in first place in the North Division after enjoying a much-needed bye in Week 5. They get starting center Jacob Hanson and wide receivers Mycah Pittman and Brenden Schooler back for Cal, an infusion of health and talent they hope will jump start a creaky offense. Thus far Oregon averages 21.0 points a game against Power 5 opponents.
The defense has been stellar. New coordinator Andy Avalos has them playing with hunger and aggression. They've proved to be an athletic and disruptive group that leads the conference in scoring defense, yards per play defense, tackles for loss per game and sacks. The Ducks haven't allowed a touchdown since Auburn scored with 9 seconds to play in the Advocare Classic. Five field goals, that's it. They've intercepted six passes while allowing only two touchdowns through the air, 160 yards passing per game.
The D is on pace to be Oregon's best. Opponents have managed a scant 3.89 yards per play, 4th in the entire country. They are significantly aided by punter Blake Maimone, who's boomed 17 kicks for a 46.4-yard average. Against Stanford on September 21st he planted punts at the 8, 8 and 10, increasing the pressure on The Cardinal offense while limiting their options.
With a shutdown defense and a smart punter, the Ducks have enjoyed a huge advantage in field position throughout all their early games.
It's a level of excellence that puts the Ducks in elite company, suggests that this team could be a real contender for the PAC-12 crown or even something greater. Yet the nagging question remains whether their offense can keep pace. With a bye week to sort things out and heal their bumps and bruises, they need an explosion, a statement against a Bear defense that plays with pride and physicality. It ranks 6th in the conference, led by their baby-faced assassin in the middle, linebacker Evan Weaver, the leading tackler in the NCAA with 77 stops.
Here are the keys to the game:
Don't let Modster be a hipster.
The junior transfer has some arm talent. As a freshman he started two games at UCLA, completing 14-19 in one and throwing for 295 yards in a bowl game.
The Ducks have to keep him uncomfortable, help a loud capacity crowd in Autzen Stadium to work on his nerves. Cal's offensive line (coached by former Oregon assistant Steve Greatwood) has surrendered 17 sacks this season, and as a new starter, Modster is likely to hold on to the football a beat longer than Garbers, pulling it down more often, easier to flush out of the pocket or force into mistakes.
The pattern of pressure and disruption the Avalos unit has established is particularly important in Modster's first start in a Cal uniform. They have to get to him, upset his timing and force him into mistakes. They can't allow him to find a rhythm, getting off to a start that settles his nerves or gets him into a comfortable flow.
If the game goes the way it should, Oregon dictates it by rattling an inexperienced starter and making it a difficult night for him.
Clamp down on the comfort zone
Cal employs a running back tandem in the old LeGarrette Blount/Jeremiah Johnson mold, their version of Thunder and Lightning, big back Chris Brown, 6-1, 230 and speedster Marcel Dancy, 5-10, 195. They switch it up. The contrast of styles gives the running game a little extra punch and allows them to always be riding fresh horses; the two have combined to lead a ground game that punches out about 150 yards a game.
The Bears will want to keep Modster out of max-pressure situations, third and long, five rushers coming, ugly frames in the highlight reel. The plan, a plan they used to brilliant effectiveness in an upset win over Washington in Seattle, will be to use the running game to keep pressure off the quarterback and make it a physical, phone-booth game, grind out some drives and keep Justin Herbert on the sidelines.
Shut down the run, and Modster is exposed. He's not ready for that yet.
Unleash the cannon
The Bears have a good secondary, one that's gotten a fair amount of hype, but the Ducks have an NFL quarterback.
He gets Brenden Schooler and Mycah Pittman back this week. He may even get a James Brown-in-the-hot-tub appearance by Juwan Johnson, throwing off the cape to dance in the bubbling water of the PAC-12 Championship race.
Either way, a much-improved corps of receivers and Penei Sewell protecting his back number makes Herbert a daunting weapon. He's leading the conference in passer rating, having thrown 14 touchdowns without a pick.
The Ducks have an offense that sputters along at a pace of three touchdowns a game, and that's just silly. It's time to put Herbert in charge and let him fling it. He can reach every corner of the field and now he has a bolstered array of targets. Let him win the football game. Oregon doesn't run the ball worth a damn. Use the pass to set up the run and get this party started.
Stay between the lines
Autzen's a magical place when it's rocking. The decibel level is electric. They'll have a new uniform combination. Don Essig's familiar voice and the electric guitar grind of "Joker and the Thief" get everyone bouncing on the sideline. Energy will be high.
Immediately after that, the Ducks will line up against a Cal squad that wants to knock their teeth out. It's been two long weeks since Oregon has played any football, and stuff will be about to get real just after the boom of the first kickoff.
The challenge will be to immediately settle into the business of blocking, tackling, executing and avoiding stupid penalties and unforced errors. Cal is a physical and disciplined team that's twice won on the road in the first quarter mile of the college football season. The Ducks have to immediately shift gears from excitement and waving towels to remembering their training and knowing the bullets are live.
It's important not to be distracted by the show. Winning football requires attention to detail. The Ducks can't be caught up in their own hype, succumb to the succubus that is PAC-12 After Dark.
