Oregon has been chosen by the Pac-12 Media as the favorite in not only the North Division of the Pac-12, but also as the favorite to win the conference in 2020. ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system which incorporates the expected point contribution of offense, defense, and special teams. In the preseason, these values are fully based off past performance, recruiting rankings, returning talent, and coaching stability. As the season wears on, the past indicators become less of a factor, but are never removed from the equation.

Using the FPI can give you an idea of a team’s overall probability to go undefeated in the pre-season. Due to the multiplicative nature of multiple event probabilities, even a team that is likely to be favored in every game will have a relatively small chance to run the table. In Oregon’s case, during the regular season ESPN gives Oregon their worst probability of winning vs. Cal at 78.1% and their best against Oregon State at 89.4%.

Based on the preseason probabilities, Oregon has a 36.2% chance to go 7-0 (barring any cancelations). Looking at Oregon’s probability to win out, we can determine that Oregon would be a 58.6% favorite in the Pac-12 Championship Game if odds were given today (likely neutral field, which it won’t be). For now, we’ll go over the regular season games in order of difficulty based on the ESPN FPI.

Oregon State hung around last year against the Ducks and made what shouldn’t have been a game at least interesting. Oregon is likely to see Tristan Gebbia for the second time, as he was forced into action against the Ducks due to an injury to Jake Luton. What Gebbia won’t have is Isaiah Hodgins, now off to the NFL. Oregon State should have a solid run game, but Oregon should be pretty stout against the run this upcoming season. The defense should continue to improve, but tended to give up a lot of points last season. Oregon has no excuse for not winning this game.

UCLA returns to Eugene for what may be the Chip Kelly Farewell game. At Oregon, Kelly was lightning in a bottle, a certain magic that he hasn’t been able to recapture. Despite pouring money into new facilities and paying top dollar for coaches, the Bruins remain one of the continually underperforming schools in football. It is difficult to see them putting up much of a fight against Oregon as they’ll be breaking in mostly new defensive backs and linebackers and have one of the lesser offensive lines in the Pac-12.

This game should cause the Ducks a bit of concern given their recent history against Washington State. The big difference, however, is the Pirate has left town. Rolovich should be a solid hire for Washington State over time, but he isn’t Mike Leach, and there is likely one reason why WSU was picked sixth in the Pac-12 North. Even though heavily favored, Oregon can’t be off it’s game and will face a quick pass offense with solid offensive line play and receiving talent. The Cougars will be breaking in a new defense, which should allow the Ducks to return to their winning ways up North.

Oregon is once again a heavy favorite in this matchup, as Stanford isn’t the same team it was a few years ago. Stanford has been hit hard with transfers and lacks the usual strength of running game, along with the offensive line not being up to their standard. Sure, Stanford is a little bit more difficult to get into, but there seems to be some program issues that are appearing, and that can’t sit well for highest paid coach in the Pac-12. Stanford has a lot to replace on defense, see transfers, and will take a bit to gel. Facing Oregon early probably plays against Stanford’s chances.

This one is a bit of a question mark, and that is due to the shuffling of the coaching staff, including a new head coach and offensive coordinators. The OC hire turned a lot of heads, and not in a good way. Washington only returns four starters on offense and hired the guy that Oregon Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead replaced at Penn State. Washington should be improved on defense after replacing most of the unit in 2019, so offense remains the biggest issue. Closing the regular season out with this one should be entertaining as the Ducks go for three in a row.

Justin Wilcox has done a solid job of improving Cal at a steady pace. Cal returns 18 starters from a team that won its bowl game last season, finishing 8-5. Cal’s biggest issue is consistency as their results were all over the board. They had better showings against Oregon and Washington, but got blown out by Utah and USC. Dropping the game against Oregon State was also surprising, especially at home. On paper, this should be the Ducks most difficult regular season game, but Oregon should be strong favorites.

Oregon has a very good chance to run the table in the regular season, but at least looking at the projected difficulty, won’t have a great resume. It will be important for Oregon to not only win, but win big, if they are to have any shot at the College Football Playoffs. Even in a shortened season, it still takes a bit of luck to not drop an off game, and Oregon currently sits with only a 21.2% chance of winning out (including the Pac-12 Championship).