With the final player updates for the 2021 class in place, the Oregon Ducks inched ahead into the #3 spot in the overall team ratings. This was mainly led by the jump in rating for athlete Seven McGee, up 57 spots, from 159 to 102. Although he hasn’t reached his earlier rankings, this is finally a move back in the right direction for a highly talented athlete that due to multiple circumstances hasn’t played high school ball in two seasons.

How small is the Duck advantage in the team rankings? A mere two points over LSU, which is essentially nothing, only 13 points over 4th place Georgia, and 21 over 5th place Clemson. Clemson would be more likely to move up in the ratings, as they are the only class in the top 10 that hasn’t hit their full quota of full point gainers, but seem to be done with the 2021 class. In the Rivals ratings, the top 20 commits are included in the team rating calculations. So, while other teams would have to subtract their 21st best recruit from their point total when adding a new commit (assuming the new commit is greater than the 21st commit), Clemson would take the next commit as a full point qualifier.

Still, any commit of “better” quality for LSU or Georgia would be a movement of at least 15 points, allowing them to jump Oregon’s current position. In the Rivals Ratings. A more “powerful” version of the star ratings, each Rivals Ranking level is worth a base 15-point change. To give a quick overview, each of the star levels below five-star (Rivals Rating 6.1) has three separate levels, high, medium and low. A high four-star is a 6.0, while a low four-star is a 5.8. Three-stars range from 5.7 down to 5.5, and two-stars from 5.4 down to 5.2. Looking at their point totals, a 5.7 three-star would move LSU up and 5.8 four-star would move Georgia up (net 15 gain, respectively for each assuming not Rivals250). Clemson could add a 5.5 (low-level) three-star and still pick up 60 points at this point, easily jumping up.

To recognize the landing of an elite recruit, there are points given those ranked in the Rivals250, with greater bonuses attached to the highest ranks (top 25), and group of five recruits (e.g., 26 through 30) bonuses down to 250. This helps further separate the top classes that might have very similar breakdowns of five, four, and three-stars. LSU has a super bonus with the #1 rated recruit, earning 100 bonus points for the top rating, whereas #2 earns 83 points, and Oregon’s highest recruit at #9, Ty Thompson, earns 73 bonus (see full chart).

The Ducks aren’t likely done, and have three main targets that could add to their point total. The first, and most likely of the group would be Avante Dickerson, who is a Rivals250 mid-level 4* out of Omaha, Nebraska. Nebraska is thought to be the main competition for Dickerson, but I like the Ducks chances here. Should the Ducks add Dickerson, they would be adding a 5.8 four-star (105 points) with 6-point Rivals250 bonus for being ranked 234. The 111 points would be reduced in the team rankings as Oregon’s current 20th best recruit is 5.6 three-star (75 points). So, Oregon would net 36 points with the addition of Dickerson, moving up to 2726 total points.

The next decision could play into whether Oregon remains in front of LSU in the final Rankings as both the Ducks and Tigers are in the hunt for JC offensive lineman Jordan Moko. Moko is a mid-level four-star (5.8 = 105 base points), but doesn’t receive any bonus points. Texas A&M is also thought to be in the hunt here, so should they land Moko, it doesn’t help or hurt Oregon relative to LSU. Oregon or LSU would receive a 30-point bump vs. their current total by just picking up Moko, with Oregon gaining that jump even with Dickerson. Should Oregon pick up Dickerson and Moko, they are at 2756 points, by far their highest total ever.

The dark horse candidate at this point is JT Tuimoloau, the #6 overall ranked recruit. On top of his 150-points for five-star, Rivals 6.1 status, he is also worth a bonus 76-points, which even after considering the 75-point reduction vs. current 21st position would still net the Ducks 151 points. While this one doesn’t look promising for the Ducks, should JTT decide to stay closer to home, Oregon would be the likely choice. If Oregon were to land all three remaining targets, they would hit 2891 points, as they would lose an additional 15 by removing a 5.7 ranked 3-star as 21st best recruit.

#1 Alabama (Currently 1st, 3478 points) – Alabama is without question going to finish in the top spot. They are currently in a different stratosphere with this recruiting class and are sitting at the highest Rivals Team Rating point total ever.

#2 Ohio State (Currently 2nd, 2988 points) – Ohio State is also on an island by themselves, they can’t catch Alabama, but no one is going to catch them either. Ohio State is also thought to be the landing spot for Tuimoloau, which would cement their spot at #2.

#3 Texas A&M (Currently 7th, 2614 points) – Texas A&M is still after Jordan Moko, Tywone Malone, and LJ Johnson. If Texas A&M can land a pair from this group, their point potential pushes them to 3rd, as both Malone and Johnson are top-60 level recruits.

#4 LSU (Currently 4th, 2677 points) – LSU is currently looking pretty strong for the 140th ranked recruit in the 2021 class, Brian Thomas, which would give them the bump needed to pass Oregon with only Dickerson added. If Oregon could land Dickerson and Moko, the Ducks could stay ahead of LSU even with this pickup.

#5 Oregon (Currently 3rd, 2690 points) – I think Oregon will land Dickerson and move up a hair in the points, but Moko could land at LSU, Oregon, or Texas A&M and definitely impact position. JTT would definitely give the Ducks #3 outright, but again, that seems like a long-shot at the moment.

#6 Georgia (Currently 5th, 2677 points) – You can’t count Georgia out to sneak one in late in the game, but for now, they don’t seem to have a ton of options left in the 2021 class. The main target at the moment, Terrion Arnold, may be leaning towards Alabama.

#7 Clemson (Currently 6th, 2669 points) – Clemson is all done, but if they sneak one more in, this predicted finishing spot goes out the window.

#8 USC (Currently 8th, 2565 points) – USC is likely to pick up highly ranked linebacker, Raesjon Davis, but that will only add 84 points to their net. Without some other major surprise USC likely firmly holds on to the 8th spot.

#9 Notre Dame (Currently 9th, 2382 points) – Notre Dame starts the next gap in points, and currently sits atop that group. The group from 9 on down doesn’t have a lot of finishing potential, and I think that each will hold its position.

#10 Florida (Currently 10th, 2368 points) – Florida is hitting the transfer market and picked up a huge commit from former 5* TE Arik Gilbert, but unfortunately for them, that won’t change their team ratings. Florida will likely sit at this point total, but there isn’t a good candidate to jump them at this point.