Take Two: After Dark

TAKE ONE: After Dark

With Oregon set to hit the road for an 8:00 PM Pacific start I have seen a fair amount of hand wringing about how ‘76%’ of the country will be in bed because that is an 11:00PM Eastern start.

Some of this take is a quibble with the numbers. The Eastern time zone has approximately 47.6% of America’s population with the Central Time zone housing 29.1% of the population. So, it is somewhat accurate that a large swath of the American population lives in time zones two and three hours ahead. The Eastern and Central time zones combined account for 76%, but not the Eastern time zone itself.

Also, generally speaking, a lot of East coast football fans are getting home from their own games in that 10-11 PM time frame and may, in fact, turn on a late game just to see what’s happening. Are they likely to watch the whole game? Probably not.

But that takes us to the bigger flaw in the argument that the Big-10 would be better off putting Oregon in a different time slot. And push who else to this time slot? Do you really think that FOX and the Big-10 are just going to not have a game during that time frame? That they are just going to cede any and all viewers to another conference and another network?

Just not going to happen. The reason that FOX and the Big-10 were interested in having west coast teams was to take advantage of time slots during which they would not have any coverage and would ‘lose’ total viewers to other networks.

While Oregon may not get as many viewers in the 8PM Pacific time slot due to the time difference, those are viewers that would otherwise have been zero. Zip. Nada. Zilch. This is a net add for the Big 10 and FOX. Oregon is the absolute best draw they can get for that time slot and getting it to be a conference matchup is a boon for the network.

If you want to blame someone, blame the Bruins for being not very good this year. USC and Wisconsin at USC is a far more compelling matchup for the 12:30 slot – and that will draw more Midwest and East coast eyes with the Badgers in the mix. Do we really think FOX wants the Oregon/UCLA matchup ahead of the Ohio State/Michigan State or Illinois/Penn State games at 4:00 and 4:30 Pacific? Not one of those other games makes as much sense for the 8:00PM start as the Oregon/UCLA game – and FOX would be stupid to put the Oregon/UCLA game on in the same time slot as two other games that will already have strong eastern time zone eyeball appeal. That would be diluting their overall product.

Do I like 8:00pm starts? Not really. But as this stands, the Big Ten will have eyeballs from 9:00am Pacific time until 11:00pm Pacific time. That was the appeal of west coast teams and there will always be a late night game. Sometimes you have to take some of the lumps like an 8:00 start to get the rewards of being on one of the two premier conferences in college football. B10 After Dark here we go.

TAKE TWO: The continued spiral of a once proud name

The attempted rebranding of the Pac-12 by Oregon State and Washington State has quickly turned into a mess, exposing the complexities and challenges of rebuilding a once-prestigious conference. What began as a bid to maintain its relevance in the rapidly evolving college football landscape has been marked by desperation, awkward maneuvering, and a dwindling pool of desirable candidates.

The pivot westward and expansion efforts, including the addition of Utah State, were meant to stabilize the conference. However, they’ve only served to underscore the precarious situation both schools find themselves in. The fact that key expansion targets such as Memphis, Tulane, and UTSA spurned the Pac-12 to remain in the AAC is a stinging blow to Oregon State and Washington State’s efforts to rebuild the conference. These schools, once seen as solid options, opted for stability rather than diving into the uncertainty that surrounds the Pac-12's future.

One of the major roadblocks to the Pac-12's expansion efforts is the financial burden facing potential members. It was projected to cost more than $27 million per school for Memphis and other AAC members to leave their conference, between exit fees and nearly $2.5 million in lost revenue. This massive buyout, combined with the lack of a guaranteed television contract from the Pac-12, has made the conference a hard sell. Current estimates project Pac-12 schools would earn more than $12 million annually in revenue, but without a firm TV deal in place, this number is speculative at best. For schools like Memphis, the risk of taking on that financial hit without a clear revenue guarantee is a significant deterrent.

Meanwhile, the departures of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Fresno State from the Mountain West come with significant financial implications. The Mountain West is slated to bring in over $120 million from these exit fees, a windfall that may temporarily bolster the conference’s finances. Each departing school owes at least $17 million, but the larger question is what the Pac-12 can offer these schools in the long term. Mountain West schools currently make around $6 million annually in overall payouts, with nearly $4 million coming from media rights. Whether the Pac-12 can match or exceed this number when it reforms in 2026 is highly uncertain, as the conference now has just seven members and hasn't yet taken its reconfigured product to market. The Pac-12 must reach at least eight full members to be recognized as an official FBS conference.

Even with these additions, the Pac-12’s position remains unstable. The looming exit fees create a bizarre financial landscape where both the Pac-12 and Mountain West are banking on future penalties to survive. While the Mountain West expects a temporary influx of cash from these departures, the Pac-12's ability to provide long-term stability remains doubtful without more attractive additions or a solid media deal.

Ultimately, the situation illustrates how far Oregon State and Washington State have fallen. What was once the proud "Conference of Champions" has devolved into a scramble for survival, with each move revealing more instability. The clock is ticking, and without securing the kind of marquee members that can rebuild the brand, the Pac-12 looks to be fading further into irrelevance.

Whatever incarnation results from this mess will not be worthy of an automatic big for the College Football Playoff. All the teams have really done is spend the war chest provided by the departure of the other ten schools only to try to create two separate G5 conferences out of one G5 conference. This was about as poorly handled as possible.