TAKE ONE:

Momentum can be a curious concept as it relates to college football recruiting. The problem with the term lies in the varied timeframes over which momentum is measured. One year ago, at this same time, Oregon had 18 commits—13 four-star recruits and five three-star recruits. Notably, there were no five-star prospects committed, with the top two being Aaron Flowers (No. 55 overall) and Dylan Williams (No. 63 overall).

Fast-forward a year, and the narrative appears different. Oregon has missed out on several high-profile recruits, such as DJ Pickett, Aaron Dunn, and Jonah Williams. The Ducks also faced setbacks with the flips of elite tight end Da’Saahn Brame, wide receiver Isiah Mozee, and defensive lineman Josiah Sharma. From a surface-level perspective, these losses might suggest a decline in recruiting momentum.

However, momentum is largely dependent on whether we are examining a snapshot of this very moment or taking into account the broader context. While it's true that Oregon has faced some challenges, the program has also secured significant victories. The Ducks ventured into Texas to land Dakorien Moore, the No. 4 player in the nation, into Ohio to claim Trey McNutt, the No. 1 safety in the nation, and into California to secure Jordon Davison, the No. 1 running back in the nation.

These achievements reflect a more comprehensive picture of Oregon's recruiting success. With Dallas Wilson already in the five-star range, Oregon could end up with four five-star players in this class, even without adding another five-star commit.

Moreover, when evaluating the top 25 rated recruiting classes for the 2025 cycle, Oregon boasts the third-highest average star rating (4.07), trailing only Ohio State (4.12) and Florida State (4.08). This statistic underscores the quality of recruits that Oregon continues to attract, despite the inevitable ups and downs of the recruiting process.

This was always poised to be a smallish class which means that the staff are not going to spend a ton of time on recruits who are not likely to be impact players and that can create the illusion of stalled momentum.

I think judging momentum by isolated events can lead to misleading conclusions. Oregon’s recruiting efforts remain strong, and the program continues to be a major player on the national stage, building a class that competes with the best in the country. The big picture reveals that the Ducks are far from losing momentum—they’re strategically positioning themselves for long-term success.

TAKE TWO:

As the 2024 college football season unfolds, the question on the minds of many Oregon fans is whether the Ducks have what it takes to contend for a national championship. In my view, the answer is a resounding yes—provided the team can maintain the health of its key players and depth as the season progresses, particularly as the College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams.

Oregon's roster this year is stacked with talent and depth, arguably one of the most complete teams the program has fielded in recent memory. The offense boasts a dynamic quarterback who can make plays with both his arm and legs, and the skill positions are filled with playmakers capable of turning any game around in an instant. The defense, bolstered by a mix of veteran leadership and young, explosive talent, has the potential to be a force, especially with a deep rotation on the defensive line.

However, the path to a national title is more grueling than ever before. The expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams means that winning a championship could require three or four playoff games instead of the traditional two. This extra game—or two—adds an additional layer of complexity and physical demand to the equation. Every extra game increases the risk of injuries and tests the depth of every team involved.

For Oregon, the key to contending for a national championship will be not just the talent at the top of the depth chart but the health and readiness of that depth when the playoffs roll around. The quarterback position is particularly critical. A healthy, confident QB is the linchpin of any championship run, and Oregon’s starter needs to be at his best in the biggest moments. Equally important, though, is the offensive line that protects him. The Ducks have a solid starting unit, but the real question is whether the depth behind them can hold up under the physical toll of a potentially longer playoff run.

The defensive line faces a similar challenge. Depth is vital to keeping the pressure on opposing quarterbacks and shutting down the run game. As the season wears on and injuries inevitably mount, the ability of the second and third-string players to step up will be a determining factor in how far Oregon can go.

I think the potential for Oregon to compete for a national championship this year is undeniably there. The talent on this roster is top-notch, and the depth gives reason for optimism. But in a season where the playoff road is longer and more demanding than ever before, health and depth are going to be the deciding factors. If the Ducks can keep their key players healthy and maintain strong depth in the trenches, I believe they have every chance to be right in the mix when the national title is on the line. And no, I don’t think they lose to Ohio State three times in a single season.