Published Jun 15, 2019
What's wrong with the Oregon offense? Ask again in 78 days
Dale Newton  •  DuckSportsAuthority
Staff Writer

Building a program is a work of planning, vision and culture-building. When Chris Petersen arrived at Washington, he went 8-6 and 7-6 in his first two years, records very much like his predecessor Steve Sarkisian had achieved. The Huskies made two minor bowls, lost the first one, won the second. In the third year they won the PAC-12 Championship and went to the College Football Playoff.

Every situation is different. Chip Kelly inherited a turnkey operation when he took over at Oregon in 2009. The team had gone 9-4 and 10-3 in the previous two years under Mike Bellotti. They'd won the Sun and Holiday Bowls, finishing 2008 ranked 9th in the AP Poll with a returning quarterback and 1000-yard rusher, a very solid defense crafted by Nick Aliotti with good returning talent.

Kelly won a PAC-10 title in his first year as head coach, taking the Ducks to the Rose Bowl, but it was a ready-made situation with a solid culture in place. He merely had to step in and tweak it, add his mantras and refine some habits. They ran the same offense to devastating effect.

In his first season, Mario Cristobal and staff had a much bigger challenge. The team was on its fourth playcaller in four seasons, Scott Frost, Matt Lubick and Willie Taggart, with Marcus Arroyo taking over last fall. Cristobal was the third head coach in three years, taking over after Taggart's abrupt departure.

The culture had deteriorated, propped up by Taggart's glib sloganeering,, marred by a training debacle that sent three players to the hospital. In the previous two years, the Ducks had gone 4-8 and 7-6. Oregon had suffered some down years in recruiting, falling to the 25th-rated class in 2016, 18th in the month-long blitz when Taggart was hired in December of 2016. Attrition had been higher than normal amid all the coaching turnover.

By most measures the Ducks had a successful season last fall. They finished 9-4, beat both their rivals and won a bowl for the first time since 2014. In February they added the highest-rated class in program history.

Evidence of the solidity of the new culture is strong. Justin Herbert and Troy Dye elected to return for their senior years, Calvin Throckmorton, Shane Lemieux and Lamar Winston along with them. In 2018 the Ducks improved from one of the most penalized teams in college football at 88.3 yards per game to just 5 per game for 47.9.

Work habits have dramatically improved. This week Cristobal reported that Oregon has 50 players who can squat 400 pounds or more, 15 who can power up more than 500.

It will be a deeper, stronger and more talented team that takes the field against Auburn on August 31st. They'll have to be. The Tigers have the best defensive line in the SEC.

When PAC-12 play starts, the Ducks have a daunting set of road games, at Stanford, at Washington, at USC and at Arizona State.

They start the year as one of the favorites for the league title and ranked in the preseason Top 15. Some pundits rate them as a playoff dark horse, and Herbert is a long shot for the Heisman Trophy.

The vision, commitment and culture have created great possibility, but some fans are impatient.


info icon
Embed content not available
Advertisement

This isn't a scientific sample. Twitter is conducive to snark and grumble. Even so, 91% of respondents think there's something wrong with the Oregon offense, and 43% think it's the playcalling.

The frustration crystallized last season as the Ducks endured a mid-season slump, grew vocal after a clunker performance in the RedBox Bowl. Marcus Arroyo became a frequent target.

Against a very good defense from Michigan State the Ducks struggled miserably on offense, achieving a season-worst 7 points and 203 total yards. They punted 11 times and had just 11 first downs.

The offense produced just 37 net rushing yards, converting only 2 of 14 on third downs, an appalling 14.3%.

Yet they put together a drive in the fourth quarter to win the game. Styles make fights. In this one the Ducks had two black eyes and a bloody nose, but the other guy was on the ground.

What's wrong with the Oregon offense? The program's own data shows that for 2018, the Ducks improved their PAC-12 ranking in every statistical category but one. It was the defense that regressed:

Numbers don't lie, but sometimes they obscure the facts that created them. In 2017 Justin Herbert missed five conference games with a broken collarbone. Last year Oregon played 12 games without starting tight end Cam McCormick, six without left tackle Penei Sewell. Sewell's absence corresponded with their mid-season slump; without him the blocking suffered with a cobbled-together offensive line, the Ducks dropping road games to Washington State, Utah and 5-7 Arizona, an ugly stretch.

There were notable successes. Only three schools in the FBS accomplished what Oregon did, a 3,000-yard passer (Herbert), a 1,000-yard receiver (Dillon Mitchell) and a 1,000-yard running back (CJ Verdell). The Ducks won a tough road game at Cal against a good defense. The offense built a 24-7 halftime lead versus Stanford and led 31-21 in the 4th quarter. Two freakish and horrific plays ruined that one. They outlasted the Huskies before a full-volume home crowd, buried the Beavers 55-15, rolling up a season-high 392 yards rushing, 5 total touchdowns by Verdell in a career performance.

Despite these successes, the offense was too predictable. They hurt themselves with an over dependence on Dillon Mitchell and a pattern of run-run-pass. Fully 33% of pass attempts went to Mitchell. The junior receiver had a fabulous individual season but his catch rate was just 58%.

Too often, opponents knew what was coming. The Ducks ran inside on first and second down. They made little use of outside runs or the screen pass. Other receivers struggled to catch the football, and for the season the team suffered a crippling 53 drops.

Offense is rhythm and momentum. Execution errors, missed blocks and dropped passes, made the Ducks creaky and inconsistent. Oregon's tempo has slowed considerably since the blur-offense days. For 2018 they averaged just under 73 plays a game. According to advanced stats, the team ranked 49th in the country in offensive efficiency, 58th in explosiveness.

To achieve any of their goals and continue the upward arc of the program, to capitalize on the veteran offensive line and Herbert's return, the Ducks have to be better on offense, less predictable, more consistent and more explosive.

Every day, everyone in this program is working on getting better. The Ducks have added talent to their wide receiver group, freshmen Mycah Pittman and Josh Delgado, plus 6-4, 235-pound Juwan Johnson, the graduate transfer from Penn State. Herbert should have a wider array of more reliable targets. New wide receiver coach Jovon Bouknight has raised their standard of work.

New offensive analyst Nate Costa is busy breaking down film and self-evaluating what worked and didn't work in the game plan and play-calling.

Expect the Ducks to make better use of the outside run and screen pass this year, and employ the Pistol Formation more effectively. With experience, the running backs should have a better grasp of how to utilize the downhill start, display better vision and cutbacks, an improved ability to make the first defender miss. It's a much stronger group with the return of Darrian Felix, Cyrus Habbibi-Likio's improvement and the addition of speedy freshman Sean Dollars.

Last season Verdell and Travis Dye combined for 1757 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, but the running game was ineffective in all four of their losses.

The offensive line is deeper and stronger this year with the addition of Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and Jonah Tauanu'u, plus the maturation and development of the stellar 2018 recruiing class, Sewell, Justin Johnson, Steven Jones, Christopher Randazzo and Dawson Jaramillo. They'll be much better able to mix and match and withstand the dings of a long season without loss of effectiveness.

In just 78 days, the Duck open in Arlington, Texas against an Auburn defense that equals Michigan State's for speed, talent and size. September 21st they travel to Stanford. The extent of their progress will be immediately tested.

The most significant thing Mario Cristobal has brought to Oregon is conviction, purpose and integrity. He's proven to be an incredibly passionate, hard-working guy who is so consistent with his message. He and his staff excel at building genuine relationships with players and their families. Oregon football has become a family. That's something that can sustain a program through challenges and adversity.

Here's a clip of the head coach speaking at a clinic just yesterday. Two days earlier he was working another clinic in Hawaii.

info icon
Embed content not available

As witnessed by the wins, the work in the weight room, the reduction in penalties and the commitment of veteran players, the Ducks have bought into his message. The question that remains is how strong this staff is in x's and o's, game-planning and in-game adjustments. They recruit like gangbusters. Can they coach at a championship level? 2019 is the opportunity to prove it.