Dan Lanning might just be playing the Washington fight song in the locker room during pregame Saturday night as he has emphasized to his team the significance of this rivalry showdown with the Huskies all week, in a stark change-up from his usual weekly approach of keeping the focus inward.
No. 25 Washington (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12) is having a nice season in its first year under coach Kalen DeBoer.
No. 6 Oregon (8-1, 6-0) is chasing a Pac-12 championship and potential College Football Playoff berth.
There should be no way possible the Ducks -- 12-point favorites as of Saturday morning -- are not fully locked in and amped up in what should be an absolutely raucous environment in Autzen Stadium.
This matchup features two of the most productive quarterbacks in college football as Washington's Michael Penix Jr. leads the FBS at 359.11 passing yards per game (3,232 yards, 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions), while Oregon's Bo Nix is a Heisman Trophy candidate, completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 2,495 yards, 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions while rushing for 457 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and 13 touchdowns, plus a receiving score.
Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. PT on FOX.
Our Duck Sports Authority staff breaks down the matchup, the storylines of the week and makes our predictions here:
RELATED: Matchup Breakdown: Oregon's leaky pass defense to get major test from Huskies, Penix
What is your favorite memory from the Oregon-Washington rivalry?
Brandon Gibson: "I was born in the Bay Area, but my family moved up to Oregon in 1985. With no ties to either state program, I believe my family started following the team that 'sucked' less at that time. It wasn’t until 1994, but my dad decided to purchase season tickets for the first time, a couple aisle seats in Section 34, Row 13. I grew up a sports junky; even by the age of 5, I would head downstairs on a Saturday and throw on SportsCenter instead of the morning cartoons. My dad realized how much I loved sports and decided to take me to my first Ducks game in 1994, a little matchup against the hated rival Huskies. It truly was a magical game and experience and pushed me toward following the Ducks closely for the last 28 years now. I remember vividly the overwhelming sense of dread as UW marched down the field in the fourth quarter, and the jubilee that outpoured the moment Kenny Wheaton broke on the ball, a crescendo of excitement as he took it to the house. I saw strangers hugging each other in the stands, people rushing the field with time still on the clock and enjoyed the scene as the goal posts came down and the fans chanted 'five-hour drive' in the direction of the Husky band."
Scott Reed: "I think most people will go with the 1994 game – especially those of us of a certain age – but I will actually go with two memories. I start with 1994 because that game was played months after I graduated from Oregon. I was going through difficult personal times and had traveled down to California to spend some time with my brother and his family. We were watching the game (in between taking turns on a slip-and-slide with his kids in the backyard), and late in the game as we were watching Damon Huard and the Huskies drive, my sister-in-law came in about thirty seconds before ‘The Pick’ and asked us why we were wasting our time watching. 'They’re going to lose anyway' were her exact words. She was wrong and history changed. I think, though, that my favorite game was 2018. I had moved to South Carolina for work in late 2017 and scheduled my return trip for vacation to coincide with two home games. One of those games happened to be Washington. I thought that game was a better representation of rebirth than the 1994 game because Oregon had been outscored 108-24 in the prior two contests and the results from 2016 still resonated with many Duck fans as Jake Browning scored and taunted Oregon linebacker Jimmie Swain with the 'finger point' that generated new levels of animosity among Oregon faithful.
"In so many ways that moment seemed to re-energize the rivalry and create a new passion among the fanbase. In 2018, I was not sitting in the press box, and to sit in the stands and talk with fans about that moment and then watch from near field level as the fans erupted with CJ Verdell’s up-the-middle touchdown run in overtime to win the game was a unique moment that will live in Oregon-Washington football lore for as long as ‘The Pick’ and will become – for a younger generation – their moment. Keep in mind that there was a very special visitor that day who called that game the 'best college football game I have ever seen.' Kayvon Thibodeaux would become a Duck and leave his own legacy in this rivalry."
What have you made of Dan Lanning's switch from treating every week the same and keeping the focus inward to really hyping up the significance of rivalry week to the players?
Brandon: "Lanning switching up his message doesn’t even make me blink an eye, as he has gone through the coaching school of Nick Saban and Kirby Smart. I believe Lanning knows exactly what he is doing and is following the blueprint laid by both of those elite coaches. Both Saban and Smart know that they need to keep improving their team all season long and must maintain the level of focus against faceless opponents. They also know that rivalry games are different, and that just taking the same approach to every opponent isn’t the way to win. I love the approach Lanning is taking, because this is an important game and one that UW will come fired up for. Oregon has the crowd, which will be on another level Saturday, and has put in the work necessary to have the solid foundation to withstand being 'hyped' coming in. This approach doesn’t work if the team doesn’t have solid fundamentals, and it can actually be detrimental if a team consumes too much energy or tries too hard to start a game off. I don’t see this happening and see it as a student that has learned well from his teachers."
Scott: "I think that there are two different messages to consider here: external messaging and internal messaging. Dan Lanning knows that fans have a passion for a rivalry that is different from what many players might feel. He wants fans energized and in the stands Saturday afternoon and much of the external messaging is driven to get fans as hyped as possible for the matchup. Do I think that the same messaging is being given to the team as to the public? Not entirely. Yes, he is playing the Husky fight song. Yes, he is amping up some of the concepts of 'pressure of the moment' in drills. But I also know that Lanning does not want his players to be overly aggressive or 'out of control' with emotion controlling the environment. The messaging is clear on an internal level -- 'The fans and rest of the student body are going to talk about this game differently; accept that it means something more to them and that is going to create some different moments of pressure. But don’t let that override what our plan is, how we approach each rep from a mental standpoint. Don’t allow the passion of the fans to negatively influence what we are doing on the field.' Too often in high-intensity games, players make mistakes that can be costly to the team because they let their emotions get out of control. Lanning is not truly changing the messaging to his team, he is respecting the reality of the differences between being a fan and being a player."
Ryan Young: "I think you make a great point, Scott. I was not thinking on that level at all. I can see a lot of validity in how you frame it. My initial reaction, though, was more in line with Brandon's takeaway. I see it like flipping a switch that he's been waiting to use all season. You can't go to this well repeatedly or it waters down the impact, but waiting for the right moment to change the dynamics in this way I think can produce an extra jolt of energy this week for the Ducks. Autzen is going to be crazy Saturday night, and if the players are also already a little extra amped up, I think that can all blend together well in aiming for a fast start. I'll be honest, leading up to the season I thought Lanning was trying too hard to do what he thought his mentors would do, with the whole refusing to name a starting quarterback even though everybody from Eugene to Atlanta knew Bo Nix was starting that game. But watching him throughout this season, I've come to see him as an elite conductor of his team's motivation, mindset and mentality, taking the best of what he learned along the way. That's the only way to explain a Ducks team that for the most part seemed to get better with each mounting week. So whatever his true motivation in blaring the UW fight song and changing his own tune a bit this week, I trust he has the pulse of his team."
What's the biggest concern for Oregon in this matchup?
Scott: "Can I get away with a two-word answer? PASSING DEFENSE. The Huskies use the passing offense sort of like a good running game; they want to control the clock and move the ball down the field in decent size gains. The Huskies throw the ball – a lot. But that does not preclude them from trying to control the game clock. In fact, Washington is the No. 3 team in the Pac-12 Conference in time of possession (31:53 per game) behind Oregon State and Utah. That’s right, they have a slight edge on Oregon (31:33) in that realm. Oregon has not proven adept at stopping the passing game but has been able to limit the damage some. This challenge will be more difficult than other passing teams because the Huskies use it to control the clock and keep the opponent off the field as much as possible. If the Ducks cannot stop the pass, they are going to need to rely on getting redzone stops – something which is not the most comfortable position for any team with playoff aspirations."
Brandon: "Lather, rinse, repeat. Oregon’s secondary and iffy ability to get pressure on the quarterback is a bad recipe for this matchup. Getting Washington into third-and-long isn’t even good enough as was shown against mostly inept Colorado. The Ducks continue to be one of the worst teams in the NCAA on third-down defense, including allowing 8 of 15 against the Buffs, many of which were third-and-long. On the plus side, Oregon is likely to put up a large number of points vs. the UW defense, which should put pressure on Penix to force some throws. Penix has shown a tendency to make insane throws but also some bad decisions. Four of his five picks have come while tied or trailing, and two of those four have resulted in defensive TDs. Oregon’s pressure on Penix will be greatly assisted by the return of DJ Johnson, and Washington hasn’t been the same team on the road vs. home. In three road games, Penix has thrown 6 TDs and 3 INTs compared to throwing 17 TD and 2 INTs in six home contests. To make matters worse for the Huskies, those road numbers were put up in the friendly confines of Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA, none of which present the environment that will be seen on Saturday evening. Oregon will give up yards on Saturday, it just needs to make sure it can eliminate the explosion plays for TDs and take advantage of the opportunities to steal a possession or two."
Ryan: "It's incredible what a change of scenery and aligning with the right coach/coordinator can do for a quarterback. Bo Nix was generally underwhelming at Auburn. With the Ducks, he's a Heisman Trophy candidate and one of the most dynamic playmakers in college football. At Indiana, Michael Penix Jr. was ... solid. With Kalen DeBoer at Washington, he's leading the FBS in passing yardage by a fairly wide margin with 3,232 yards, 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He's averaging 359.11 passing yards per game -- nearly 29 yards more than the next closest quarterback. What is my point in all this? Washington isn't going to stop this Bo Nix/Kenny Dillingham attack, and Oregon isn't going to shut down Penix. I think the Ducks just have to embrace that this is going to be a shootout, so be ultra aggressive in the pass rush (with hopefully a fully-healthy DJ Johnson) to try to disrupt as many Huskies drives as possible and enjoy the advantage of a raucous stadium causing problems at the line of scrimmage for Penix and Co."
What is your updated CFP outlook for Oregon after the movement in the rankings this week?
Scott: "I am not much different than before. Oregon needs to win out but will still need to some help to get into the playoff. The SEC will almost surely get two teams in, the B1G will get either Ohio State or Michigan in; TCU likely gets in if they win out. Do I think TCU wins out? No. And that is the slot Oregon needs if it wants to get in. I know there are some that think a one loss Tennessee won’t get in over a one loss conference champion Oregon, but I am not yet convinced. The SEC lobbying for a second team will be lengthy and intense and I expect also somewhat vociferous inside the room during conversations leading to rankings each week. Best case scenario for Oregon is to win out and have two teams (not named Georgia) in front of them lose."
Ryan: "I also think the TCU matter will take care of itself either in road games at Texas and Baylor or in the Big 12 championship game. I feel really good about Oregon's CFP chances, now that Clemson and Alabama are mostly out of the picture. (No, I don't think a two-loss Alabama team has a path to the top 4 if Oregon wins out). I don't think there is a Pac-12 team that can beat the Ducks -- including USC in a potential conference championship showdown -- so I expect them to win out. And I also am not totally convinced that an unbeaten TCU with only one win over a CFP top-25 team (Kansas State) -- even if the Horned Frogs beat presently-ranked Texas, the Longhorns will finish out of the rankings -- is a lock to get in over a 12-1 Oregon team with wins over UCLA, Utah and USC (if it plays out that way), that lost way back in Week 1 to the top-ranked team in the country, essentially on the road. The biggest obstacle is going to be the committee not wanting to pair up Oregon and Georgia in a semifinals rematch, so if the Bulldogs stay No. 1, that could be a problem for the committee."
Brandon: "Updated outlook on the playoffs has Oregon’s odds improving, but beyond winning out, the Ducks still need some help. There is a big game for Oregon’s hopes this weekend, as TCU and Texas face off in Austin. This is likely the toughest remaining test for the Horned Frogs, and Oregon would gladly take a little help from the Longhorns. TCU has Baylor and Iowa State remaining on its schedule, and then a matchup in the Big 12 championship game against a team with at least four losses. If TCU runs the table, I can’t see a way that the playoff committee excludes them from the top 4. Georgia has a remaining slate of Mississippi State, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, followed by the SEC championship game. They might get a bit of a challenge in the SECCG, but that would likely require an off day by the Bulldogs. Even if Georgia drops the SECCG, they likely beat out Oregon for that 4th slot, and that also puts the possibility of including what likely is a two-loss SEC Champion in the mix. Ohio State and Michigan will face off at the end of the regular season, and while the loser of that game will make some noise with the committee, I see the loser of the matchup in a similar situation as Tennessee. The playoff committee is going to have a tough time taking a one-loss non-conference champion (not named Georgia) over a one-loss champion in Oregon. More than anything though, Oregon has to navigate a remaining schedule of No. 25 Washington, No. 13 Utah, at Oregon State, and then a likely matchup against No. 8 USC or a rematch against No. 12 UCLA. If Oregon can win out, they will have the resume to push themselves into position as long as TCU moves out of the way."
What is your score prediction for Saturday night?
Brandon: "I think Oregon’s secondary and pass rushing problems will allow Washington to put up some points, but I don’t think that UW’s defense is going to cause enough issues for Oregon’s offense to keep the Huskies from playing from behind. Playing from behind in a hostile environment will allow Oregon to take advantage of mistakes by UW and control the flow of this game. The line is currently at -13 for Oregon, and the Ducks have scored in the 40-point range for every single Pac-12 game this year. Taking a look at the over/under, sitting at 72.5, Vegas expects this to be a 43-30 type affair. I don’t think that will be too far from the truth, but I do accept that being a rivalry game, things could get a little crazy, and I might put a smaller equal chance on this one being closer, or turning into a bigger blood bath for the Ducks. For now I’ll go with the most likely scenario, and that has it closer to the Vegas score. Ducks 49 – Huskies 31."
Scott: "I don’t have the same confidence I did earlier in the week. Rivalry games are different and sometimes our eyes deceive us. Will the Washington defense that showed up against Arizona State, UCLA and Arizona show up at Autzen? Will they play as poorly on offense as they did against Cal and Oregon State? If the answer to those questions is yes, then Oregon wins handily. But I think that their offense will be very good and have no trouble moving the ball between the 20s against an Oregon passing defense that has shown very little pressure much of the season and even less ability to stop even mediocre passing teams. The Husky defense will likely be a little more prepared for Oregon than they were UCLA. The Ducks have more talent and more depth and should win this handily. But my gut is feeling it will be closer than it should, so I am going to go with Oregon winning 49-45 in a shootout."
Ryan: "If this game was in Seattle, I may feel differently, but I don't view these teams as being on the same level. I understand the wildcard that any rivalry game presents, but who have the Huskies beaten? The answer -- literally one team with a winning record. That was a 24-21 home win over Oregon State last week that required a field goal in the final seconds. Meanwhile, in Washington's toughest game of the season it got walloped by UCLA (the final score was close, but the Bruins led 40-16 entering the fourth quarter) and also lost to Arizona State. I think Oregon rolls, especially at home. Ducks, 48-31."
A.J. Jacobson: "It is hard to be objective when it comes to the Huskies, but I am going to do that for this week’s predict-a-score. The bottom line is that Oregon is a better team and they are playing at Autzen Stadium. They have been one of the best teams in the country since the ghastly first game loss at No. 1 Georgia and they are playing with confidence following eight straight wins. Washington is 7-2, but it is not an especially impressive record in light of some of the details of their season. They have played a slate of weak non-league games: Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State (4-5), and they have not played an impressive league slate yet. And they are not exactly road warriors, with their only road win this year coming at Cal. Based strictly on the numbers of average offensive/defensive production, the score would be 35-32. But the adjustments I make favor Oregon. For strength of schedule adjustment (28 vs. 59 ranked SOS nationally so far this season), the Ducks get +4 and the Huskies get -4. Oregon gets another bonus of +3 for playing at Autzen. Final Score: Oregon 42 – Washington 28."
