12/28/2022 football Edit

Holiday Bowl preview: Scouting the Tar Heels

Jacob Hamre

Staff writer

It’s been an entire month since we’ve last seen Oregon take the field. The loss in Corvallis, however, still remains fresh for everyone involved with the program. The game kept Dan Lanning and the Ducks out of a Pac-12 championship appearance in his first year as head coach, while simultaneously beginning a rocky start to the offseason.

Offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham hightailed it to Tempe and took on the role of head coach at his alma mater, Arizona State. Following his departure, more than a dozen players entered the transfer portal, five-star quarterback prospect Dante Moore de-committed from the school and ended up at UCLA, etc.

Fast-forward to today and the Ducks have found their new play-caller in Will Stein, coming in from UTSA. Lanning and staff also managed to bring together an elite No. 11-ranked recruiting class on signing day, with the news of quarterback Bo Nix’s return for 2023 being the added cherry on top.

Now with things seeming to have settled down, the main focus is on closing out the season in proper fashion. Doing so, however, won’t be an easy task.

The No. 15-ranked Ducks (9-3) faceoff with North Carolina (9-4) in the Holiday Bowl at 5 p.m. PT Wednesday night in San Diego (televised on FOX).

North Carolina was a one-loss team not too long ago. Led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, the Tar Heels had one of the most explosive offenses in the nation for most of the regular season. A three-game losing streak derailed the team’s high hopes and has left them unranked heading into this game.

Though both teams will look different on Wednesday following transfer departures and playing opting out of the bowl game to focus on the NFL, the starting quarterbacks for both schools will be lacing up. Noah Sewell and Christian Gonzalez will forgo the game as they prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, in addition to the extensive list that exited through the. The Tar Heels have a long list of players in the transfer portal as well, including a slew of defensive backs that includes top corners Tony Grimes and Storm Duck.

On paper, this should set the Ducks up perfectly for an offensive masterclass. Nix’s top three receivers will be active in the game, as well as the entire offensive line and top two running backs. The challenge will primarily be for the defense to hold up on its end.

Maye is one of only six quarterbacks this year to throw for over 4,000 yards. He can also run the ball just as efficiently as Nix, with 653 rushing yards. Unlike Nix, however, Maye will be without his favorite target.

Josh Downs declared for the NFL Draft and won't be playing in the game. His 1,000+ yards of production will surely be missed and the offense will look a lot different for North Carolina.

The shorthanded teams still have plenty to work with and will make for a competitive matchup.

Before the final game of the 2022 season kicks off, here’s how North Carolina stacks up.

Scouting the Tar Heels

Record: 9-4, 6-2 ACC

Coach: Mack Brown (4th year, 30-21; 274-143-1 career)

Scoring offense: 34.9 PPG (23rd)

Scoring defense: 31 PPG (105th)

Total offense: 473.6 YPG (14th)

Total defense: 438.2 YPG (116th)

Five Players to Know:

1. QB Drake Maye (No. 10): The Tar Heels have a star at the quarterback position. When the sophomore tweeted, “Could never leave this place, I’m a Tar Heel,” on December 7th, all of Chapel Hill rejoiced. With 4,768 yards of total offense and 42 touchdowns, Maye did everything for UNC’s offense. Even though he will be without his favorite target on Wednesday, Maye is the type of player who is a touchdown away at any snap. Maye and Nix are tied for 4th nationally in total touchdowns and will be trading blows constantly in the matchup.

2. RB Elijah Green (No. 21): Maye leads the Tar Heels in rushing, but Green isn’t too far behind. The third-year running back out of Roswell, Ga., has been efficient in his first year as a starter. He has over 600 yards of total offense and has big-play ability, with an 80-yard carry being the longest of his career. Stopping the run was the Ducks’ biggest weakness in the loss to the Beavers. Oregon State ran the ball consecutively on three straight drives to complete the upset in Corvallis. Green is no Damien Martinez, but combined with the legs of Maye, UNC’s run game can be very dangerous.

3. WR Antoine Green (No. 3): Downs was by far the best receiver for the Tar Heels this season. He had 94 catches for 1,029 yards. Without him to throw to for the Holiday Bowl, Maye will be looking toward Green heavily. Green is a fifth-year senior for UNC and was the second leading receiver behind Downs. He tallied 43 catches for 798 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Tar Heels throw the ball about 40 times a game. Downs’ targets will be up for grabs, and Green is first in line to have an even larger role.

4. DB De’Andre Boykins (No. 16): The defensive back room for North Carolina is at a bare minimum. Cornerbacks Tony Grimes and Storm Duck and safety Cam’Ron Kelly headline the list of DBs in the transfer portal for the Tar Heels at the moment, and there aren’t many players left to fill the voids. Thankfully for the Tar Heels, Boykins is still here and is one of the best defensive players they have left. He has 60 tackles, 2 sacks, and an interception this season, while also being one of the tallest players on the field at all times, standing at 6-foot-5. He should matchup with Oregon's Troy Franklin.

5. LB Cedric Gray (No. 33): UNC’s leading tackler, Cedric Gray, will be active in the Holiday Bowl and is coming off an elite season. He was the only Tar Heel defender to be named first-team All-ACC. Along with his 136 tackles, he had 3 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions and a sack. Oregon’s offense is mostly intact, but will be without Dillingham for the first time this year. The new play callers will have to make sure to avoid Gray as much as possible.

What North Carolina does well: Not many teams pass the ball better than North Carolina. The Ducks have faced the best of the best in that category, losing to Michael Penix’s Washington, but will have to play much better for a different outcome. Lanning’s defense will be without Noah Sewell and Christian Gonzalez, which will make it even more challenging to stop the elite pass attack.

Where North Carolina is vulnerable: The main reason North Carolina isn’t a ranked team currently is because of a lackluster defense. The highest outing for a Tar Heel opponent came in Week 2 when Appalachian State scored 61 points in a shocking loss. With Oregon’s high-scoring ability, UNC is in for an extremely tough task.

Key stat: 4

During the 3-game losing streak, Maye has thrown 4 interceptions. He only had 3 through the first 10 games as the team went 9-1. Simply put, Oregon’s defense will have to try and make Maye as uncomfortable as possible to seal the 2022 season with a win. The Tar Heels’ high-scoring ways have not been as common as of late. Clemson held them to 10 points in the ACC Championship game, and Georgia Tech held them to 17 just two weeks prior.

Key matchup: Bo Nix vs UNC secondary

The entire state of North Carolina is going to be crossing its fingers on Wednesday to make sure there are no injuries in the Tar Heels’ secondary. With the huge hole from the transfer portal departures, there aren’t many players left to close out the year. Nix hasn’t been the same himself since his ankle injury, but with a month of rest, he should be close to 100% for the final game of the season. He has already announced his return for 2023 and should be playing stress-free as he prepares his transition to year two in Eugene.