Published Oct 14, 2023
Late decision proves costly for No. 8 Oregon in 3-point loss to No. 7 UW
Eric Berniker
Duck Sports Authority contributor

RELATED: Oregon players talk after Saturday's game

Losing a rivalry game on a missed field goal from makeable range the way that No. 8 Oregon did in Week 7 is a hard way to go down.

Oregon’s 36-33 loss to No. 7 Washington is even more difficult to process when you realize that the game should have never even come down to a game-tying kick had a variety of different things happened for the Ducks from an execution and play calling standpoint.

Dan Lanning’s Ducks unsuccessfully went for three fourth downs throughout the course of the game, two of which occurred in the red zone. Take three points on both of the empty red zone trips and Oregon (5-1, 2-1 Pac-12) comes out victorious, something that Lanning acknowledged.

“We felt that was an opportunity to get a touchdown, a touchdown changes the game,” Lanning said about the unconverted fourth-and-goal opportunity right before halftime. “That being said the one before the half is one where you really go back and say 'let's get the field goal.'”

At this point in his tenure Lanning has branded himself as a gambler. Entering Week 7, Oregon was five-of-five on fourth-down attempts. The team has a jumbo set that its has employed in short-yardage situations, and in Week 4 against Colorado the Ducks used a trick play allowing defensive lineman Casey Rogers to get 18 yards on fourth from within their own 20-yard line.

Their luck being bold ran out in Seattle.

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Up 33-29 with 2:11 to play, Lanning and the Ducks rolled the dice on fourth-and-3 from the Washington 47-yard line, a short yardage situation which, if converted, would have allowed Oregon to take a few knees and end the game.

“We felt like our defense was playing well, and we felt like we had an offensive play that was going to be successful,” Lanning said.

If any of the three fourth-down attempts are converted Oregon, of course, wins the game and the criticism surrounding Lanning's decisions seem overly critical.

However, all three of Lanning’s defining play calls backfired, causing defeat. The numbers indicate the end result should have looked different.

Bo Nix threw for 337 yards to Michael Penix, Jr.'s 302, Oregon ran for 204 yards to Washington’s 99, Oregon dominated time of possession 34:21 to 25:39, The Ducks had 32 first downs total to Washington’s 24, and Oregon did not have a turnover while Penix, despite being sensational, threw an interception.

Lanning’s defense looked good, holding UW to 5-of-11 on third downs and got pressure in Penix’s face unlike last year in Eugene when the lefty quarterback had all day to pick apart the Ducks.

With all of their success there it felt like there was no need for gimmicky fourth-down attempts. Oregon came into Seattle a top-10 team and played like it throughout the afternoon. With more conventional play calling or one more big play on any of their fourth-down attempts, the Ducks would now be 6-0 and potentially with a top-four ranking nationally putting them on track for the College Football Playoff.

While the loss does not completely crush Lanning’s team’s playoff aspirations, it does make the path to college football's national championship much harder. There is still a chance that these teams could meet again in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

The bottom line for the Ducks is that they need to win out. Or at least win a lot and look good to keep the momentum that they’ve built to persist in Playoff conversations.

To road ahead does not get much easier for the Ducks as they turn the page on Saturday's game. Four ranked opponents await Oregon with No. 19 Washington State, No. 16 Utah and No. 10 USC all on the schedule over the next month.

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