TAKE ONE
Over the last two seasons, we have seen two different teams get to the College Football Playoff Championship game by escaping close call after close call. In 2022, TCU played seven games that were decided by one score (including a three-point loss in the Big 12 Championship Game. Sonny Dykes was rewarded with a massive contract extension – and the Horned Frogs have gone 9-10 since that appearance.
Last season, Washington rode nine games decided by single digits to their own College Football National Championship Game appearance. The Huskies lost their coach to Alabama and are 4-3 this year without their former staff and players. Kalen DeBoer is suffering his own issues giving Alabama their first season with two losses before November in nearly two decades.
Why am I talking about that here? Because the issue with both of those teams is they did not have what is really important to continued success at this level of college football – an elite roster ready to step in and backfill those departures. They remind me a lot of NCAA basketball tournament Cinderellas; teams carried by significant veteran leadership that rely heavily on seniors.
This underscores just how crucial having the next man up ready to go and on the roster now and how crucial it is to have elite recruiting every season. The days of getting four or five years to build a program and keep it there seem to be gone. The days of multiple underperforming seasons in a row are getting less and less likely to be seen in the Power Four. There is just too much at stake. Unless you are a blueblood in the midst of a recruiting hotbed, losing momentum on the recruiting trail is a death knell.
Add in the changing landscape of college football with NIL, revenue sharing, easier transfers, and the concept of keeping momentum seems more and more difficult. Burnout is a real thing and it is starting to affect some elite coaches and I suspect we will start to see more and more coaches retire and move on.
The changes in college football, driven by the NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) landscape, easier transfers, and the shifting dynamics of player recruitment, have created a new era where the traditional rules no longer apply. Programs like TCU and Washington, as highlighted, have shown that short bursts of success without consistent elite-level recruiting and roster depth are no longer enough to sustain a program’s prominence. The days of coaches being given multiple seasons to rebuild, and the luxury of slow, methodical program development, are becoming rare, especially in the upper tiers of the Power Five (or soon-to-be Power Four) conferences.
What makes Oregon head coach Dan Lanning's approach so impressive in this context is his ability to adapt to these realities rather than resist them. While many veteran coaches are struggling to adjust to the fast pace of roster turnover and increased pressure for immediate results, Lanning has embraced this new era of college football. Instead of lamenting the loss of stability that once allowed programs to grow over time, he’s leaning into the tools and opportunities that now define the sport: aggressive recruiting, roster management through the transfer portal, and savvy utilization of NIL.
Lanning’s adaptability is a testament to his awareness of the stakes in the modern college football landscape. In an era where burnout is becoming more prevalent, and some coaches are stepping away rather than continuing to deal with the pressures of constant change, Lanning is finding a way to thrive. He understands that sustaining success is no longer about building slowly but rather about being able to reload quickly and effectively. This involves not only securing elite high school talent but also mastering the transfer portal to ensure that the roster is always stacked with capable replacements.
By fully embracing this fluid environment, Lanning is positioning Oregon as a program built for sustained success, one that doesn’t rely solely on senior-laden teams or Cinderella-like runs but is constantly developing and replenishing talent. His approach acknowledges that in today’s college football, it’s no longer enough to win close games with veteran leadership; programs must cultivate depth and flexibility to stay competitive at the highest level year after year.
This mindset sets Lanning apart from many of his peers, as he’s not merely trying to hold onto past methods of program building, but instead is helping to shape the future of college football. In doing so, he’s establishing Oregon as a program that will not only compete in the current environment but will also excel in the evolving landscape where elite recruiting, quick adaptability, and creative roster management are paramount. Lanning’s ability to adapt to these changes while other programs are floundering in the wake of their past successes demonstrates a level of foresight and resilience that is crucial for long-term dominance in the sport.
TAKE TWO
When I learned of the decommitment of Jared Curtis from Georgia, I mentioned on our forums that I was sure Oregon was reaching out, but was not sure exactly where they stood.
But something changed over the course of the day Monday: there are some murmurs that Curtis wants to reclassify to the class of 2025 and that changes a lot of what I thought was going to happen.
Oregon had been looking at adding a second QB to the class of 2025 and a lot of the speculation had centered around Hawaii standout Jaron Sagapolutele. But until he makes a visit, that one is not going to happen – I don’t believe in coincidences, so this one does not seem overtly coincidental.
On Thursday of last week, Oregon was one of several names that I had heard mentioned so this tracks well. I don’t know if Curtis will actually reclassify to 2025, but given he has already mentioned Oregon as a leader to others, it would not surprise me at all at this point if he were to do so and join the Ducks burgeoning class of 2025.
When we add in that Jahkeen Stewart seems to be settling between staying close to home (LSU) and Oregon and this class starts to look almost insanely ridiculous with top end talent.
Final recruiting take this week: keep an eye on whether Linkon Cure visits Oregon soon. I know that the Ducks are working hard there, but another visit might be a tell-tale sign. Will have plenty more recruiting news in our Wednesday Recruiting Primer tomorrow!
