Published Sep 13, 2017
Early Returns: 2016 vs. 2017
circle avatar
Brandon Gibson  •  DuckSportsAuthority
Staff Writer
Twitter
@DSArivals

Although the sample size is extremely limited at this point, I decided to compare some early season numbers from 2016 vs. those in 2017. For the purpose of this analysis, I looked at the opening game and 3rd game (vs. Nebraska) of the 2016 season against the 1st and 2nd games of 2017. The gap in quality between UC Davis and Southern Utah is likely offset by the home (’17) vs. away (’16) advantages of the games against Nebraska.


Advertisement

Offense

Oregon has seen an overall uptick in offensive production, as they are averaging 132.5 additional offensive yards per game in 2017. Of particular interest is the 19 yards decrease per game on the ground, and the 151.5 yard increase through the air.

While the Ducks are focused on the running game, the 336 effort vs. Nebraska in 2016 is difficult to overcome in such a small sample. The increased air attack, however, is likely driven by Herbert’s development and performance (over 50 point increase in team passing efficiency over ’16).

Oregon currently ranks 16th in rushing and 13th in passing offense, a balanced attack good for 2nd overall yardage in the nation. Aided by a strong first three halves of football, the Ducks currently rank 3rd overall in scoring offense, a full 17 points per game better than 2016.

Defense

The Ducks have moved in a positive direction on defense, as well. Through the early returns, Oregon is giving up 47 yards less per game, which is mainly occurring by slowing down the running game (-54.5 yards per game). Focusing on the run game was a staple of the Allotti system, and could be the key to getting back to a respectable level.

While only a slight improvement, Oregon has given up 3.5 less points per contest. The defense has struggled at times to kill long drives, but they have been impressive in 3rd down situations thus far, allowing only an 18.8% conversion rate, a major early improvement over 2016 (40%).

Turnovers ratio are an issue of both sides of the squad, but the major improvement in 2017 has come from takeaways by the defense (6 in ’16 vs 2 in ‘17), with the Ducks at an overall ratio of +1 per game in 2017 vs. 0 in 2016.

The Ugly

Penalties are still the Achilles heel of Oregon currently. Getting this problem resolved should be a top priority of the staff as it was ugly last year and even worse early this season. Over the two games in 2016, the Ducks had 21 penalties for 197 yards, this year they have racked up 25 penalties for 226 yards.

Penalties have killed too many drives and created unnecessary opportunities for the opposing team. If the Ducks don’t get this part under control, it will really come back to bite them (and nearly did at times against Nebraska).

Conclusion

Overall, numerically things are starting to look a bit better for the Ducks in the early going. In my opinion, the most promising stats are the increase in takeaways by the defense and overall offensive statistical increase, in a return to the upper echelon as an offensive power.

Stat Comparison Chart (Game Average)
20162017Difference

Total O

502

634.5

+132.5

Rush O

293.5

274.5

-19

Pass O

208.5

360

+151.5

Pass Efficiency

146.54

199.47

+52.94

Scoring O

42.5

59.5

+17

Total D

410

363

-47

Rushing D

158.5

104

-54.5

Passing D

251.5

259

+7.5

Scoring D

31.5

28

-3.5

Turnover Margin

0

+1

+1

3rd Down O Conv

44.4%

54.5%

+10.1%

3rd Down D Conv

40%

18.8%

-21.2%

Red Zone O

90%

87.5%

-2.5%

Red Zone D

75%

83.3%

+8.3%

First Downs O

21

29.5

+8.5

First Downs D

22

23

+1

Penalties

10.5 - 98.5

12.5 - 113

2 - 14.5