Published Sep 27, 2019
If I Were A Betting Man: Week 5 picks
Bill Trocchi  •  Rivals.com
Staff

Pity the Pac-12 for all its cannibalization of potential playoff teams. But, man, does that league not entertain?

Last weekend, the two embattled Los Angeles teams put together storybook victories to knock off unbeaten Pac-12 foes, thereby hampering the league’s efforts to get in the playoffs. USC, which was forced to use its third-string QB from the opening series of the game on, a guy who was in the transfer portal but ended up not leaving, beats No. 10 Utah 30-23 when Matt Fink throws for 351 yards and three touchdowns.

Then crosstown rival UCLA easily topped that, rallying from 32 points down with a 50-spot in the second half to beat Washington State 67-63 despite giving up nine touchdown passes.

“We collapsed in every phase of the game,” said Mike Leach after watching a 49-17 third-quarter lead go up in smoke. #Pac12AfterDark is alive and well, even if it is leaving the conference in the playoff darkness.

One team that isn’t quite out of the playoff race out west is Oregon, and A.J. Jacobson of DuckSportsAuthority.com will represent the publishers this week since the Ducks take on five of the teams listed on our slate. For the analysts, it will be national recruiting director Mike Farrell, who is never short of college football opinions.

Off we go.

All games listed are Saturday unless noted and ET. Spreads are from Covers.com.

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Arizona State (+4.5) at Cal, Friday, 10:30 p.m., ESPN

We have to start with some AfterDark, right? Cal is somehow unbeaten despite ranking 93rd in yards per play. After opening with a pair of cupcakes, Arizona State split two close ones with Michigan State and Colorado. Given the Bears’ lack of offense, Arizona State does enough to cover.

Trocchi’s pick: Arizona State, $100

Jacobson: Cal

Farrell: Arizona State

VIrginia (+11.5) at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m., NBC

Mega letdown spot for Notre Dame after last week’s all-everything effort at Georgia. Virginia was definitely caught in a lookahead spot last week, falling behind 17-0 to Old Dominion before winning to move to 4-0. There’s no way the Irish don’t come out flat, and Virginia QB Bryce Perkins is good enough to make them pay.

Trocchi’s pick: Virginia, $50

Jacobson: Virginia

Farrell: Notre Dame

USC (+9.5) at Washington, 3:30 p.m., FOX

USC fans were chanting “Hire Urban’ in the Coliseum last week before the Trojans upset Utah. So that buys Clay Helton a week, right? Now they travel to Washington, whose sole loss was a 20-19 defeat after a 2.5-hour lightning delay that emptied their home stadium in very #AfterDark fashion. Otherwise, the Huskies have been spot on and Jacob Eason is living up to his five-star status at QB.

Trocchi’s pick: Washington, $100

Jacobson: Washington

Farrell: Washington

Mississippi State (+11) at Auburn, 7 p.m., ESPN

Pretty good letdown-lookahead spot for Auburn, coming off a big win at Texas A&M with a trip to Gainesville next week. The Tigers will basically deal with this the rest of the year as the remainder of their big games (LSU, Georgia, Alabama) all have easy games before them. And while sometimes it helps to back up and see what happened last year (a 23-9 MSU win), keep in mind Mississippi State’s defense has gone from No. 1 nationally to No. 57, and that number figures to get worse as the conference season rolls on.

Trocchi’s pick: Auburn, $50

Jacobson: Auburn

Farrell: Mississippi State

Ohio State (-17.5) at Nebraska, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Fascinating one to watch here, with Ohio State and sophomore QB Justin Fields getting presumably their first test in what figures to be a wild road environment. Will the Bucks continue to demolish everything in their path? Nebraska’s 11 turnovers this season is a P5 high, and if it doesn’t protect the ball, this will turn into a rout very quickly. Ohio State seems to be good for one inexplicable road whiff a season, but I’m not picking it to be this weekend.

Trocchi’s pick: Ohio State, $50

Jacobson: Nebraska

Farrell: Ohio State

Week 5 Picks
ASU-CalVirginia-NDUSC-Wash.Miss St.-AuburnOhio St.-Nebraska

Trocchi

ASU

Virginia

Wash.

Auburn

OSU

Jacobson

Cal

Virginia

Wash.

Auburn

Nebraska

Farrell

ASU

ND

Wash.

MSU

OSU

One More That I Like: Kansas State (+4.5) at Oklahoma State, 7 p.m.

The Cowboys gave Texas all it wanted on the road, and I’m just not quite a believer in Kansas State yet. It has a decent win at Mississippi State, but to go on the road and beat a team with the offensive firepower of Oklahoma State would be a stunner. The only danger is a hangover effect for the Cowboys, but they should walk away from the Texas loss feeling pretty good.

The pick: Oklahoma State, $200

Season Statistics:

Analysts: 13-8

Publishers: 10-10

Trocchi: 9-11

When there is a unanimous selection: 4-3

Trocchi’s overall stats

9-14, minus $900